Motor vehicle theft, however, has shown a concerning upward trend, particularly in recent years. While the number of incidents initially decreased from 2,250 in 2010 to 2,079 in 2017, it then rose sharply to 5,353 in 2022, a 137.9% increase from 2010. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 2.8 in 2010 to 5.5 in 2022, a 96.4% rise. Moreover, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 4.02% to 6.53%, suggesting that this crime has become a more significant issue in Austin compared to other parts of Texas.

Arson cases in the city have fluctuated over the years but show an overall increase. The number of incidents rose from 122 in 2010 to 149 in 2022, a 22.1% increase. When adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, changing from 0.15 to 0.15 over the period. However, the city's proportion of state arson cases increased significantly from 2.89% to 6.81%, indicating that arson has become a more prominent issue in Austin relative to the rest of Texas.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 2,481 per square mile in 2010 to 3,042 in 2022, a 22.6% rise. This growth coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved security measures and community vigilance. Additionally, the median income in Austin rose substantially from $56,351 in 2013 to $89,415 in 2022, a 58.7% increase. This economic improvement correlates with the decline in burglaries and larceny-theft, potentially indicating that better economic conditions may have reduced the motivation for these types of crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of current patterns. Burglary and larceny-theft rates are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially decreasing by an additional 15-20% by 2029. However, motor vehicle theft is projected to remain a significant challenge, with rates potentially increasing by another 25-30% if current trends persist. Arson incidents are forecasted to stabilize or slightly increase, maintaining the city's elevated share of state arson cases.

In summary, Austin has made significant progress in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft, despite rapid population growth. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the city's increasing share of state arson cases present ongoing challenges. The correlation between rising incomes and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further contribute to crime reduction. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on targeted strategies to address motor vehicle theft and arson will be crucial in ensuring a safer environment for its residents.