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Property Crime Trends in Poteet, Texas: Strawberry Festival Town Sees Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Poteet, Texas, a small community known for its annual Strawberry Festival, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 69.05%, from 126 to 39 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 11.31%, from 3,582 to 3,177 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 38 burglaries, which decreased to 15 in 2022, representing a 60.53% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 10.61 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 4.72 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this significant decrease, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.02% to 0.03% throughout the period. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing burglaries, the improvement is consistent with statewide trends.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased substantially. In 2010, there were 86 cases, which dropped to 19 in 2022, a 77.91% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 24.01 in 2010 to 5.98 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.02% to 0.00%, indicating a more significant improvement compared to state averages.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years but shows an overall increase. From 2 incidents in 2010, it rose to 5 in 2022, a 150% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.56 to 1.57. Despite this increase, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained low, ranging from 0.00% to 0.02%, suggesting that this trend may be part of a broader regional or state-wide pattern.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic, with years of no reported incidents interspersed with years of 1 to 4 cases. The highest number of arsons (4) was reported in 2010, while 2022 saw no cases. The city's contribution to state arson cases has fluctuated significantly, reaching as high as 0.16% in 2019 but dropping to 0.00% in several years, including 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,067 per square mile in 2010 to 1,833 in 2022, total property crimes also fell from 126 to 39. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $41,892 in 2013 to $53,197 in 2022, property crimes decreased from 139 to 39 during the same period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes. Based on the current trends, total property crimes could potentially drop to around 25-30 incidents per year by 2029. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to see a slight increase, potentially reaching 7-8 incidents annually.
In summary, Poteet has made significant strides in reducing overall property crime rates, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The city's improvements often outpace state averages, indicating effective local crime prevention strategies. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests that economic factors may play a role in this positive trend. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these downward crime trends while addressing the slight increase in motor vehicle thefts will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of Poteet's residents.
