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Property Crime Trends in Arnold, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Arnold, Missouri, a suburban city located in Jefferson County, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 888 to 313, representing a 64.8% reduction. During this same period, the population remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease from 29,540 in 2010 to 29,688 in 2022, a change of only 0.5%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 49 reported burglaries, which dropped to just 8 cases in 2022, marking an 83.7% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.66 in 2010 to 0.27 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased from 0.15% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend. This significant improvement in burglary rates suggests enhanced home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a considerable reduction. The number of reported cases decreased from 819 in 2010 to 263 in 2022, a 67.9% drop. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents declined from 27.7 in 2010 to 8.86 in 2022. However, the city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased less dramatically, from 0.72% in 2010 to 0.34% in 2022, indicating that while improvements were made locally, they were somewhat in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. The number of reported cases increased from 20 in 2010 to 42 in 2022, a 110% rise. The rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.68 in 2010 to 1.41 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.15% to 0.17% over this period, suggesting that this crime type became relatively more prevalent in the city compared to state averages. This trend may indicate a need for targeted efforts to address vehicle security in the area.
Arson cases in the city have remained low but variable. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, and in 2022, there were 2 cases. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.03 to 0.07 over this period. The city's proportion of state arson cases rose from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.33% in 2022, indicating that while arson remains rare, it has become relatively more common in the city compared to state averages.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in overall property crime rates coincides with a slight increase in racial diversity, as the percentage of white residents decreased from 94% in 2013 to 90% in 2022. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the decrease in property crimes and the fluctuation in median income, which rose from $62,578 in 2013 to $67,396 in 2022, despite some year-to-year variations.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests that if current patterns continue, the city may see a further reduction in overall property crime rates by approximately 20-25% by 2029. However, motor vehicle theft rates may continue to rise, potentially increasing by 15-20% over the same period if not addressed through targeted interventions.
In summary, Arnold has made significant strides in reducing most types of property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an ongoing challenge. The city's changing demographics and economic conditions appear to have some correlation with these crime trends, suggesting that continued focus on community development and targeted crime prevention strategies could help maintain and improve upon these positive trends in the coming years.
