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Property Crime Plummets in Glasgow, Missouri: A Decade of Dramatic Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Glasgow, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 11 incidents in 2010 to 0 in 2019, representing a 100% reduction. This dramatic decline occurred against a backdrop of population decrease, with the city's population falling from 2,373 in 2010 to 2,096 in 2022, a 11.67% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city show a clear downward trend. In 2010, there were 5 burglaries reported, which decreased to 0 by 2014 and remained at that level through 2019, except for a single incident in 2017. This represents a 100% decrease in burglary rates over the period. When considering the population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 2.11 in 2010 to 0 in 2019. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics also declined, from 0.02% in 2010 to 0% by 2019, indicating an improvement in local safety relative to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents followed a similar declining pattern. Starting with 6 incidents in 2010, the number fluctuated slightly before reaching 0 in 2015 and remaining there through 2019, with the exception of 5 incidents in 2017. This represents a 100% decrease from 2010 to 2019. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.53 in 2010 to 0 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics also fell from 0.01% in 2010 to 0% by 2019, suggesting improved local property protection measures.
Motor vehicle theft showed minimal activity throughout the period. There were 2 incidents reported in 2011, but otherwise, the city maintained zero motor vehicle thefts from 2010 to 2019. This stability, despite the population decrease, indicates effective prevention of this specific crime type. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained at or near 0% throughout the period, highlighting the minimal impact of this crime in the local context.
Arson incidents were rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2016. This single incident represented 0.12% of the state's arson cases for that year. The rate per 1,000 people for arson was essentially zero for most of the period, with the exception of 2016 when it briefly rose to 0.5 per 1,000 people. The isolated nature of this incident suggests it was an anomaly rather than a trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income rose from $47,906 in 2013 to $59,768 in 2019, property crime rates generally decreased. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, hovering around 80% throughout most of the period, which may have contributed to the low crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's reasonable to forecast that property crime rates in Glasgow will likely remain very low or at zero for the next five years, potentially through 2029. The consistent downward trend and the prolonged periods of zero reported crimes in recent years support this projection.
In summary, Glasgow has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime statistics over the past decade. The consistent decrease across all categories of property crime, coupled with rising median incomes and stable home ownership rates, suggests a trend towards increased community safety and stability. These positive developments, if maintained, could contribute to the city's appeal as a safe residential area and potentially attract new residents, despite the recent population decline.
