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Property Crime Trends in Alma, Missouri: A Study of Minimal Occurrences in a Growing Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Alma, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. With a population of 849 in 2022, this small city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and property crime rates over the years. The total number of property crimes has remained relatively low, with sporadic occurrences reported between 2016 and 2019, and no reported incidents in other years. This pattern is set against a backdrop of population growth from 743 in 2012 to 849 in 2022, representing a 14.3% increase over a decade.
Burglary trends in the city have been minimal, with only one reported incident in 2018. This single occurrence translated to a rate of approximately 1.11 burglaries per 1,000 residents that year, accounting for 0.01% of the state's total burglaries. The isolated nature of this event makes it challenging to establish a meaningful trend or correlation with population changes. However, it's worth noting that this incident coincided with a period of population growth in the city.
Larceny-theft has been slightly more prevalent, with one incident reported in both 2016 and 2017, and another in 2019. These occurrences resulted in rates of approximately 1.10, 1.15, and 1.24 larceny-thefts per 1,000 residents in those respective years. Interestingly, these incidents coincided with years of higher population figures, suggesting a potential, albeit weak, correlation between population size and larceny-theft occurrences. However, the percentage of state crime remained at 0%, indicating that these incidents had negligible impact on statewide statistics.
Motor vehicle theft has not been reported in Alma throughout the period covered by the data. This absence of motor vehicle thefts is notable, especially considering the city's proximity to larger urban areas where such crimes might be more common. The consistent zero rate per 1,000 residents and 0% contribution to state crime in this category suggest effective prevention measures or simply a lack of opportunity for this type of crime in the city.
Similarly, arson incidents have not been reported in Alma during the period under review. The absence of arson cases, maintaining a rate of 0 per 1,000 residents and 0% of state crime, reflects positively on the city's fire safety and property protection measures.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and other socioeconomic factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. The sporadic property crime incidents (2016-2019) coincided with years of higher population density, ranging from 3,147 to 3,293 people per square mile. This suggests that increased population density may have a slight influence on property crime occurrences. However, it's important to note that even during these years, the overall crime rate remained very low.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the sporadic nature of reported incidents. However, based on the historical data and current trends, it's reasonable to predict that Alma will continue to experience very low property crime rates. The forecast suggests that the city may see occasional, isolated incidents of larceny-theft or burglary, potentially averaging 0-1 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft and arson are likely to remain at zero or near-zero levels.
In summary, Alma demonstrates a remarkably low and inconsistent pattern of property crimes. The most significant discovery is the city's ability to maintain minimal crime rates despite population growth and increased density. This suggests effective community policing, strong social cohesion, or other protective factors at play. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the community's safety and quality of life.
