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Violent Crime Trends in Poplar Bluff: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Poplar Bluff, Missouri, a city of 27,275 residents as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 93.5%, from 108 to 7 incidents. This significant reduction occurred alongside a population growth of 2% during the same period, suggesting an improvement in public safety relative to the city's size.
Murder rates in the city have shown variability over time. In 2010, there were no reported murders, but this increased to 2 in 2011, representing 0.69% of the state's total murders. The rate fluctuated in subsequent years, with 1 murder reported in most years between 2012 and 2017. In 2020, there was a spike to 4 murders, accounting for 0.64% of the state's total. However, by 2022, the murder rate had returned to zero. When considering population trends, the murder rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2020 at 0.15 and dropped to 0 in 2022, indicating a recent positive trend in this most serious category of violent crime.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend over the years. In 2010, there was 1 reported rape, which increased to 19 in 2017, representing a 1,800% increase. This rise is particularly notable given the relatively stable population during this period. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.04 in 2010 to 0.73 in 2017. The percentage of state rape cases attributable to the city also rose significantly, from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.89% in 2017. However, there was a decrease to 10 reported rapes in 2020, and by 2022, no rapes were reported, suggesting a recent improvement in this area.
Robbery trends have shown a general decline over the years. In 2010, there were 28 reported robberies, which peaked at 31 in 2014 before declining to 17 in 2020, and ultimately to zero in 2022. This represents a 100% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.05 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery cases fluctuated, peaking at 0.61% in 2014 before dropping to 0% in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault, the most common form of violent crime in the city, has shown substantial fluctuations. In 2010, there were 79 reported cases, which increased to 102 in 2012 before declining to 54 in 2020, and further to 7 in 2022. This represents a 91.1% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.95 in 2010 to 0.26 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases also decreased from 0.55% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in public safety regarding this crime category.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. As the population density increased from 1,983 people per square mile in 2019 to 2,075 in 2022, there was a concurrent sharp decrease in violent crimes from 85 in 2020 to 7 in 2022. This suggests that the increase in population density may have contributed to improved community vigilance and crime deterrence.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued decline in overall violent crime rates if current trends persist. However, given the already low number of reported crimes in 2022, the rate of decrease is likely to slow. We project that the total number of violent crimes could stabilize at around 5-10 incidents per year by 2029, barring any significant changes in socioeconomic conditions or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Poplar Bluff has shown a remarkable improvement in violent crime rates across all categories from 2010 to 2022, with the most dramatic reductions occurring in recent years. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and increased density, suggests that the city has made significant strides in enhancing public safety. As the community continues to evolve, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the ongoing development and well-being of Poplar Bluff's residents.
