Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there were 3 incidents, which increased to 5 in 2022, a 66.67% increase. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only slightly increased from 0.30 in 2010 to 0.42 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022. This increase, while small in absolute numbers, could indicate a need for targeted prevention strategies.

Arson incidents have been consistently low or non-existent in the city throughout the period, with most years reporting zero incidents. This stability suggests effective fire prevention and investigation practices.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,464 per square mile in 2010 to 1,729 in 2022, property crimes per capita decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. The median income rose from $84,211 in 2013 to $83,046 in 2022, showing relative stability. During this period, property crimes continued to decrease, indicating that income levels may not have been a significant factor in crime trends.

The percentage of owner-occupied housing increased slightly from 87% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This correlation suggests that higher home ownership rates may contribute to community stability and lower crime rates. Racial distribution remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 95% in 2013 to 91% in 2022, while other racial groups saw small increases. However, these minor changes do not appear to have significantly impacted property crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall decreasing trend, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries are expected to stabilize at very low levels, potentially reaching near-zero incidents. Larceny-theft is projected to continue its gradual decline, potentially reaching around 100 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts may see a slight increase but are likely to remain under 10 incidents per year. Arson incidents are expected to remain at or near zero.

In summary, Alexandria has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing property crimes over the past decade, despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in burglary reduction, while larceny-theft remains the primary property crime concern. The city's ability to maintain low crime rates while experiencing population growth and increased density is commendable. Moving forward, focused efforts on larceny-theft prevention and maintaining the positive trends in other categories will be crucial for continued improvement in overall property crime rates.