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Property Crime Surge in Lucedale, Mississippi: A Decade of Rising Incidents Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lucedale, a city in Mississippi, has witnessed a significant increase in property crime rates that outpaces its population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes rose by 80%, from 70 to 126 incidents, while the population grew by 26.6%, from 7,213 to 9,129 residents. This disparity indicates a concerning trend in the city's crime landscape.
Burglary incidents in Lucedale have shown considerable fluctuation over the years. Starting with 15 burglaries in 2010, the number dropped to 6 in 2011, then surged to 36 in 2020, before settling at 27 in 2022. This represents an overall increase of 80% from 2010 to 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.08 in 2010 to 2.96 in 2022. Notably, Lucedale's share of state burglaries rose dramatically from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.82% in 2022, suggesting a growing concentration of burglary incidents within the city relative to the state.
Larceny-theft cases have shown a more consistent upward trend in Lucedale. The number of incidents increased from 51 in 2010 to 83 in 2022, a 62.7% rise. The rate per 1,000 people also increased from 7.07 in 2010 to 9.09 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft incidents fluctuated, rising from 0.15% in 2010 to 0.59% in 2022, with a peak of 0.55% in 2020. This indicates that while larceny-theft has increased within the city, its growth has been somewhat proportional to statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in Lucedale has seen a significant increase over the years. From 4 incidents in 2010, it rose to 16 in 2022, a 300% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.55 in 2010 to 1.75 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also saw a substantial rise from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.94% in 2022, indicating that this type of crime has grown more rapidly in the city compared to the state average.
Arson data for Lucedale is limited, with only three years of reported incidents. There were no reported arsons in 2010, 2011, and 2012. In 2020 and 2021, there was 1 reported arson each year, but this dropped to 0 again in 2022. The city's share of state arsons was 1.23% in 2020 and 1.06% in 2021, indicating that when arsons did occur, they represented a significant portion of the state's total.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in property crimes and population growth in Lucedale. As the population density increased from 1,128 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,428 in 2022, property crimes also rose. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between rising median income and increased property crime. The median income grew from $38,632 in 2013 to $47,351 in 2022, potentially indicating more valuable targets for property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crimes in Lucedale could increase by approximately 20-25% from the 2022 levels. This would result in an estimated 151-158 property crimes annually. Burglaries might stabilize around 30-35 incidents per year, while larceny-theft could reach 95-100 cases. Motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise, potentially reaching 20-25 incidents annually.
In summary, Lucedale has experienced a significant increase in property crimes, outpacing its population growth. The most notable trends include the substantial rise in motor vehicle thefts and the city's increasing share of state-wide property crimes. These trends, coupled with rising population density and median income, suggest a changing landscape of property crime in the city. As Lucedale continues to grow, addressing these crime trends will likely become an increasingly important focus for local law enforcement and community leaders.
