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Property Crime Surge in Granby, Missouri: A Small City's Unexpected Trend
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Granby, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2018, the city experienced a significant increase in total property crimes, rising from 7 incidents in 2010 to 71 in 2018, a staggering 914% increase. During this same period, the population fluctuated, starting at 4,556 in 2010 and ending at 4,557 in 2018, showing only a minimal overall change of 0.02%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there was only 1 reported burglary, which increased to 20 in 2013, representing a substantial jump to 4.49 incidents per 1,000 people. However, by 2018, the number decreased to 14 burglaries, or 3.07 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated dramatically, peaking at 0.07% in 2013 before settling at 0.08% in 2018. This erratic pattern suggests localized factors influencing burglary rates rather than following broader state trends.
Larceny-theft incidents show a clear upward trend. From 5 cases in 2010, the number rose to 53 in 2018, a 960% increase. When adjusted for population, this translates to an increase from 1.1 incidents per 1,000 people in 2010 to 11.63 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics grew from a negligible amount in 2010 to 0.06% by 2018, indicating a faster growth rate in this crime category compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low but showed an upward trend. From a single incident in 2010, it increased to 6 cases in 2017, before slightly decreasing to 4 in 2018. This represents a change from 0.22 incidents per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.88 per 1,000 in 2018. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2018, suggesting a growth rate slightly higher than the state average.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported incident in 2014, representing 0.12% of state arsons for that year. The lack of consistent arson data makes it difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about trends in this category.
A notable correlation exists between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,029 people per square mile in 2010 to 953 in 2019, property crime rates increased. This inverse relationship suggests that factors other than population concentration may be driving crime rates in the city.
Projecting current trends forward, it's estimated that by 2029, Granby could see total property crimes reach approximately 120 incidents per year if the current growth rate continues. This projection assumes a continuation of the observed trends without intervention or significant changes in socioeconomic factors.
In conclusion, Granby has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the observed period, particularly in larceny-theft. The disproportionate growth in crime rates compared to population changes suggests underlying factors beyond simple demographic shifts are at play. These trends underscore the need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives to address the rising property crime rates in Granby.
