Property Crime Trends in Highlandville, Missouri: Inverse Relationship with Population Density
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
DATA SOURCE
Highlandville, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. With a population that has grown from 2,795 in 2010 to 3,201 in 2022, representing a 14.5% increase, the city has experienced fluctuations in its property crime rates. Over this period, the total number of property crimes varied, with a peak of 5 incidents in 2013 and 2016, and several years reporting zero incidents.
In examining burglary trends, the city saw sporadic occurrences with no consistent pattern. Burglaries were reported in 2011 (1 incident), 2013 (1 incident), 2014 (1 incident), 2015 (1 incident), 2016 (2 incidents), and 2017 (1 incident). The highest rate was in 2016 with 0.76 burglaries per 1,000 residents. Notably, the burglary rate as a percentage of state crime remained extremely low, with the highest being 0.01% in 2016. This suggests that while burglaries occur occasionally, they are not a persistent issue in the city.
Larceny-theft showed more consistency in occurrence but still at low levels. The highest number of larceny-thefts was 3 incidents, reported in 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2010 at 1.07 but generally remained below 1 per 1,000 in subsequent years. Larceny-theft's contribution to the state's total remained negligible, never exceeding 0.01%. This indicates that while larceny-theft is the most common property crime in the city, its impact is minimal both locally and at the state level.
Motor vehicle theft was rare, with only three years reporting incidents: 2013 (1 incident), 2014 (2 incidents), and 2017 (1 incident). The highest rate was in 2014 at 0.70 per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, despite the low numbers, motor vehicle theft as a percentage of state crime reached 0.01% in both 2013 and 2014, suggesting these isolated incidents had a disproportionate impact on the city's contribution to state statistics.
Arson incidents were not reported in any year from 2010 to 2021, indicating this is not a significant concern for the city.
When examining correlations, a notable relationship emerges between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 567 people per square mile in 2010 to 650 in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing property crime incidents. This counterintuitive relationship suggests that as the community became more densely populated, it may have led to increased informal surveillance and community cohesion, potentially deterring property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the low crime rates observed in recent years. Based on the data from 2019 to 2022, where zero property crimes were reported, it's projected that the city will maintain this low crime environment. However, given the historical fluctuations, occasional isolated incidents may occur, but they are likely to remain infrequent and have minimal impact on overall crime rates.
In conclusion, Highlandville demonstrates a remarkably low and decreasing trend in property crimes despite population growth. The sporadic nature of incidents, particularly in recent years, suggests effective local law enforcement and community practices. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will likely be a priority, contributing to the overall quality of life for its residents.
