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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Winona, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased significantly from 66 to 5, representing a 92.4% reduction. This dramatic decline in property crime occurred alongside a population decrease from 3,148 in 2010 to 2,335 in 2021, a 25.8% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which dropped to zero reported cases by 2021. This represents a 100% decrease in burglary incidents. When considering the population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 7.31 in 2010 to 0 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries also declined from 0.07% in 2010 to 0% in 2021, indicating a significant improvement in burglary prevention relative to the state.
Larceny-theft incidents have also seen a notable decrease. In 2010, there were 39 reported cases, which reduced to just 3 in 2021, marking a 92.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 12.39 in 2010 to 1.28 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.03% to 0%, suggesting improved local efforts in preventing this type of crime.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but generally decreased over time. From 4 incidents in 2010, it reduced to 2 in 2021, a 50% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 1.27 in 2010 to 0.86 in 2021 due to the population decrease. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable at 0.03% in 2010 and 0.01% in 2021, indicating that the reduction in this crime type was somewhat proportional to state-wide trends.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only one reported case in 2018. This single incident represented 0.15% of state arson cases that year. The lack of consistent arson data makes it challenging to establish a clear trend for this crime type.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density decreased from 826 per square mile in 2010 to 613 in 2021, property crimes also declined. This could suggest that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime rates. Additionally, the median income increased from $30,182 in 2013 to $39,982 in 2021, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes. This correlation might indicate that improved economic conditions could be associated with lower crime rates.
The percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 74% in 2013 to 80% in 2021, which aligns with the reduction in property crimes. This trend could suggest that higher rates of homeownership might contribute to lower property crime rates, possibly due to increased community investment and vigilance.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that by 2029, Winona could see total property crimes potentially drop below 5 per year, with burglary and larceny-theft rates approaching zero, and motor vehicle theft remaining at very low levels.
In summary, Winona has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crime over the past decade, with significant decreases in burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. These improvements have occurred alongside changes in demographic and economic factors, such as increased median income and homeownership rates. If current trends continue, the city is poised to maintain very low property crime rates in the coming years, potentially becoming a model for small-city crime reduction strategies.