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Property Crime Trends in Carrollton, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carrollton, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced significant fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable overall decrease from 60 incidents in 2010 to 22 in 2022, representing a 63.3% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population decrease, with the city's population falling from 4,108 in 2010 to 3,743 in 2022, a 8.9% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 11 reported burglaries, which peaked at 27 in 2017 before dramatically decreasing to just 2 in 2022. This represents an 81.8% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.68 in 2010 to 0.53 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.12% in 2017 before falling to 0.02% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made significant strides in reducing burglaries, the reduction may be part of a broader statewide trend.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a substantial decrease over the period. From 45 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 60 in 2017 before dropping to 17 in 2022, a 62.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 10.95 in 2010 to 4.54 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.06% over the years, indicating that the city's larceny-theft trends largely mirrored those of the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed more volatility. From 4 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 13 in 2013 before decreasing to 3 in 2022, a 25% decrease over the entire period. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly increased from 0.97 in 2010 to 0.80 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, peaking at 0.1% in 2013 before settling at 0.01% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has managed to reduce motor vehicle thefts, the reduction has been less pronounced than in other property crime categories.
Arson incidents in the city were sporadic and infrequent. There was one reported case in 2010 and another in 2014, with no reported incidents in other years. This makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends or correlations for arson in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $35,616 in 2013 to $38,485 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in property crimes. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing a general decline over the years.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the historical data and current trajectories, we can anticipate total property crimes to potentially decrease further to around 15-18 incidents per year by 2029. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously, as various factors could influence future crime rates.
In summary, Carrollton has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates, coupled with the modest reduction in motor vehicle thefts, indicate effective crime prevention strategies or changing socioeconomic conditions. The correlation with rising median incomes suggests that economic improvements may have played a role in reducing property crimes. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the community's safety and quality of life.
