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Property Crime Plummets in Republic, Missouri Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Republic, Missouri, a growing suburban community, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically by 74.2%, from 573 to 148 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred alongside a population increase of 38.5%, from 19,270 to 26,694 residents during the same period.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 79 burglaries, which decreased to 15 in 2022, representing an 81% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 4.1 in 2010 to 0.56 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.35% in 2020 before dropping to 0.11% in 2022. This significant decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, suggests improved security measures or changing criminal patterns within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decrease. Incidents dropped from 475 in 2010 to 126 in 2022, a 73.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 24.6 to 4.7 over this period. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases declined from 0.42% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, indicating a faster reduction in larceny-theft compared to the state average. This trend suggests effective local strategies in combating petty theft and shoplifting.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility but an overall decrease. From 19 incidents in 2010, it reached a low of 13 in 2013, then fluctuated before settling at 7 cases in 2022, marking a 63.2% decrease over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.99 to 0.26. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.14% to 0.03%, indicating a significant improvement in vehicle security or theft prevention measures.
Arson cases in the city were sporadic and low in number. The data shows only four reported cases over the 12-year period: one each in 2010, 2015, 2018, and 2022. The inconsistent nature of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but the rarity of occurrences suggests it is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,205 per square mile in 2010 to 1,669 in 2022, property crime rates decreased significantly. This could suggest that increased urbanization and community presence may deter criminal activities.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates could potentially decrease further by 20-30% if current trends continue. However, this projection should be viewed cautiously as crime rates may stabilize or be influenced by unforeseen factors.
In conclusion, Republic has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime statistics over the past decade. The significant reductions across all categories of property crime, coupled with population growth, suggest effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. These positive trends contribute to an enhanced quality of life for residents and may attract further development and investment in the area.
