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Property Crime Trends in Savannah, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Savannah, Missouri, a small city with a rich history, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 66.1%, from 56 to 19 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased slightly by 4.6%, from 6,692 to 6,384 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 11 burglaries, which decreased to just 2 in 2022, representing an 81.8% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.64 in 2010 to 0.31 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.06% in 2013 and 2015, before declining to 0.02% in 2022. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents also saw a considerable decline. In 2010, there were 43 reported cases, which dropped to 12 in 2022, a 72.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 6.43 in 2010 to 1.88 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.02% to 0.05% throughout the period. This reduction in larceny-theft could indicate enhanced community vigilance or improved retail security practices.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. From 2 incidents in 2010, it increased to 5 in 2022, representing a 150% increase. However, when considering population changes, the rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.30 in 2010 to 0.78 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.06% during this period. This increase, albeit small in absolute numbers, might suggest a need for targeted vehicle security measures.
Arson cases in the city were rare, with only one reported incident in 2018, accounting for 0.15% of state arson cases that year. The lack of consistent arson reports makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's predominantly white population (97-100% throughout the period) remained stable, showing no strong correlation with crime rates. However, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $49,430 in 2013 to $53,193 in 2021, overall property crime rates tended to decrease, suggesting that improved economic conditions might contribute to reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend. Based on the historical data, we can project that total property crimes could potentially decrease further to around 10-15 incidents per year by 2029. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to pose a challenge, potentially stabilizing at current levels or slightly increasing.
In summary, Savannah has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft categories. The inverse relationship between rising median incomes and declining crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety. While motor vehicle thefts remain a concern, the overall trend points to a safer community. These improvements in public safety, coupled with the city's stable demographics and rising incomes, position Savannah as an increasingly attractive place to live and invest in the coming years.
