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Property Crime Plummets in Ashford, Alabama: A Decade of Dramatic Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ashford, located in Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in this small community decreased significantly from 88 to 10, representing an 88.6% reduction. This dramatic decline occurred alongside a population growth of 15.3%, from 3,322 in 2010 to 3,831 in 2022, making the drop in crime rates even more noteworthy.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 39 burglaries reported, which equated to approximately 11.74 burglaries per 1,000 residents. By 2022, this number had plummeted to zero reported burglaries. The percentage of state burglaries attributed to the city also decreased from 0.17% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. This trend suggests a significant improvement in home and property security within the community, potentially due to enhanced law enforcement efforts or community-based crime prevention initiatives.
Larceny-theft, while fluctuating over the years, has also seen an overall decline. In 2010, there were 41 incidents reported, or about 12.34 per 1,000 residents. By 2022, this number had decreased to 10 incidents, or approximately 2.61 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state-wide larceny-theft decreased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022. This reduction could indicate improved community awareness and preventive measures against petty theft and shoplifting.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has shown variability but an overall decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 8 reported incidents (2.41 per 1,000 residents), which decreased to zero in 2022. The city's share of state-wide motor vehicle thefts also dropped from 0.13% in 2010 to 0% in 2022. This improvement might be attributed to better vehicle security systems, increased surveillance, or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting this type of crime.
Arson data for the city is limited, with most years showing no available data. The only recorded incident was in 2011, with one case representing 0.18% of state arsons. By 2022, there were zero reported arsons. Given the scarcity of data, it's challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 535 people per square mile in 2010 to 617 in 2022, property crime rates decreased. This inverse relationship suggests that the growing community may have developed stronger social bonds and informal surveillance, contributing to crime reduction. Additionally, the median income rose from $42,284 in 2013 to $45,339 in 2022, which could have played a role in reducing property crimes by improving overall economic conditions.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trajectory, we might expect to see total property crimes stabilize at around 5-7 incidents per year, with larceny-theft remaining the predominant form of property crime. Burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are likely to remain very low or at zero.
In summary, Ashford has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crime rates over the past decade, defying the typical correlation between population growth and increased crime. The most significant improvements have been in burglary and motor vehicle theft, which have been essentially eliminated. This positive trend, occurring alongside increases in population density and median income, paints a picture of a community that has successfully enhanced its safety and security. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will likely be a priority for local law enforcement and community leaders.
