Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents remained relatively low, there was actually a slight increase from 7 cases in 2010 to 7 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased marginally from 2.01 in 2010 to 2.10 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, starting at 0.15% in 2010, dropping to as low as 0.03% in 2014, and then rising to 0.14% by 2022. This suggests that while the absolute numbers remained stable, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics has become more prominent in recent years.

Arson cases in the city were sporadic and infrequent. Only three incidents were reported over the entire period: one each in 2010, 2016, and 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents for these years was 0.29, 0.32, and 0.31 respectively. The city's share of state arson cases during these years was notably high at 0.41%, 0.49%, and 0.47%, suggesting that when arson did occur, it represented a significant portion of the state's total.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $32,178 in 2013 to $49,806 in 2022, the total property crime incidents decreased from 60 to 48 during the same period. This suggests that improving economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching single digits annually. Larceny-theft is projected to remain the most common property crime but may see a gradual decline. Motor vehicle theft rates are forecasted to remain relatively stable, while arson incidents are expected to remain rare and sporadic.

In summary, Cowpens has experienced a notable overall decrease in property crime rates over the past decade, with particularly significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft. The community's improving economic conditions, as reflected in rising median incomes, appear to have played a role in this positive trend. While challenges remain, particularly in addressing motor vehicle theft, the overall trajectory suggests a safer community with lower property crime risks for its residents.