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Violent Crime Trends in Swansea: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Shrinking South Carolina Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Swansea, a small community in South Carolina, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population changes. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, ranging from a low of 2 incidents in 2014 to a high of 16 in 2013. During this period, the population decreased by 20.9%, from 4,574 in 2010 to 3,620 in 2022.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero from 2010 to 2022, with no recorded incidents of murder or non-negligent manslaughter. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population decline. The percentage of state crime for murder has consequently remained at 0% throughout this period, indicating that the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The city recorded one rape in 2011, 2013, and 2015, and two in 2017. In other years, including 2022, no rapes were reported. The rape rate per 1,000 people reached its peak in 2017 at 0.46, coinciding with the highest number of reported cases. The percentage of state rape crimes fluctuated, with the highest being 0.22% in 2017. These figures suggest that while rape is not a persistent issue, occasional incidents do occur, impacting the city's safety profile.
Robbery trends show more variation. The number of robberies ranged from zero to six, with the highest incidents recorded in 2015 and 2018. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2018 at 1.41. Notably, the percentage of state robberies reached 0.35% in 2018, indicating a disproportionate contribution to state robbery statistics relative to the city's size. In 2022, there was one robbery, representing 0.09% of state robberies.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents varied widely, from a low of 1 in 2019 to a high of 14 in 2013. The rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2013 at 3.26. The percentage of state aggravated assaults fluctuated, peaking at 0.21% in 2013. In 2022, there were 7 aggravated assaults, representing 0.09% of state incidents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,192 per square mile in 2010 to 1,734 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, though with significant year-to-year variations. Median rent, which fluctuated between $768 and $1,077 during the available data years, doesn't show a clear correlation with crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall violent crimes. This projection is based on the recent uptick observed in 2022 and the historical pattern of fluctuations. However, given the small numbers involved, even minor changes can appear as significant percentage increases.
In summary, Swansea has maintained a relatively stable violent crime profile over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and low rates of rape are positive aspects of the city's safety record. However, the sporadic nature of robberies and assaults suggests a need for continued vigilance in law enforcement and community safety measures. The relationship between declining population density and overall crime rates may indicate that community cohesion plays a role in maintaining public safety in this small South Carolina town.
