Loading Content...
Property Crime Declines in Carteret, New Jersey: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Carteret, a small city in New Jersey spanning 4.41 square miles, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of property crimes decreased by 34.1%, from 399 to 263 incidents. This decline occurred alongside a population growth of 8.5%, from 22,456 to 24,373 residents during the same period, suggesting an overall improvement in public safety relative to the city's expanding population.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a consistent downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 72 burglaries, which decreased to 20 in 2020, representing a 72.2% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 3.21 in 2010 to 0.82 in 2020, a significant improvement in public safety. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It peaked at 0.56% of state burglaries in 2013 before declining to 0.35% in 2020, indicating that the city's burglary reduction outpaced the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a declining trend. In 2010, there were 296 larceny-theft incidents, which decreased to 208 in 2020, a 29.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 13.18 in 2010 to 8.53 in 2020. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.62% in 2010 to 0.67% in 2020, suggesting that while improvements were made, they were not as pronounced as in other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft in the city fluctuated over the decade but ultimately increased. There were 31 incidents in 2010, which rose to 35 in 2020, a 12.9% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 1.38 in 2010 to 1.44 in 2020. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts more than doubled from 0.31% in 2010 to 0.65% in 2020, indicating a growing concentration of this crime type relative to the state.
Arson data for the city is limited and sporadic, making it difficult to establish clear trends. Reported incidents were rare, with only 11 cases in 2015 and 2 cases each in 2017 and 2018. The city's share of state arson cases peaked at 4.87% in 2015 but was 0% for most other years, suggesting that arson is not a persistent problem in the area.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the city's population density increased from 5,114 people per square mile in 2010 to 5,550 in 2020, property crime rates generally decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between the changing racial composition of the city and property crime trends. As the white population decreased from 38% in 2013 to 25% in 2020, and the Hispanic population increased from 32% to 40% during the same period, property crime rates continued to decline, indicating that demographic shifts did not negatively impact public safety.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend in property crimes. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise slightly, while burglaries and larceny-thefts are expected to further decrease. The total number of property crimes is projected to fall below 250 incidents per year by 2029, assuming current trends and interventions remain consistent.
In summary, Carteret has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This improvement has occurred despite population growth and demographic changes, highlighting the effectiveness of local law enforcement and community initiatives. While motor vehicle theft remains a concern, the overall trend suggests a safer community with lower property crime rates. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies will be crucial to sustain and further improve these positive trends in Carteret.
