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Property Crime Decline in Springfield, Missouri: A Decade of Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Springfield, Missouri, a city known for its vibrant cultural scene and proximity to the Ozarks, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes in the city decreased by 45.2%, from 15,216 to 8,336 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred against a backdrop of population growth, with the city's population increasing by 6.5% from 159,643 in 2010 to 170,062 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 2,188 burglaries, which decreased to 1,368 by 2022, representing a 37.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 13.7 in 2010 to 8.0 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in raw numbers, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 6.77% in 2010 to 10.32% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have decreased more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime, also saw a significant decline. In 2010, there were 12,024 larceny thefts, which dropped to 5,819 by 2022, a 51.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 75.3 in 2010 to 34.2 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts decreased from 10.57% to 7.48% over this period, indicating that the city's efforts to combat this crime may have been more effective than those in other parts of the state.
Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the number of thefts increased from 1,004 in 2010 to 1,149 in 2022, a 14.4% rise, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased slightly from 6.3 to 6.8. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 7.61% to 4.75%, suggesting that this crime may have increased more rapidly elsewhere in Missouri.
Arson cases in the city fluctuated over the years but ultimately decreased from 59 incidents in 2010 to 21 in 2022, a 64.4% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.37 to 0.12. The city's proportion of state arson cases decreased from 5.67% to 3.42%, indicating that arson reduction efforts in the city may have been more successful than in other parts of the state.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,920 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,046 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. This suggests that the city may have implemented effective crime prevention strategies despite increasing urbanization.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Burglaries and larceny thefts are likely to decrease further, while motor vehicle thefts may stabilize or slightly increase. Arson cases are expected to remain low but may fluctuate slightly due to their already low numbers.
In summary, Springfield has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, outpacing population growth and showing improvements across most categories. The city's share of state crime has decreased in several areas, indicating effective local crime prevention strategies. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
