Robbery rates in Rich Hill have been exceptionally low, with no reported incidents from 2010 to 2022, except for a single case in 2016. This isolated incident represented 0% of the state's robberies when rounded to two decimal places. The robbery rate per 1,000 people for that year was approximately 0.48. The overall trend indicates that robbery is not a significant concern for the city, with 11 out of 12 years reporting zero incidents.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, peaking at 7 cases in 2010, 2013, and 2016, and dropping to 0 in 2019. In 2022, there was 1 reported case. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, reaching a high of about 3.13 per 1,000 in 2013 and 2016, and falling to 0.45 per 1,000 in 2022. The percentage of state aggravated assaults ranged from 0% to 0.05% during this period, indicating that the city's contribution to the state total remained minimal.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between median rent and violent crime rates. As median rent increased from $445 in 2013 to $730 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults. The racial composition of the city remained predominantly white (96% in 2022), with little variation over time, making it difficult to draw meaningful correlations between race distribution and crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that the city will continue to experience low levels of violent crime. The model suggests that aggravated assaults may stabilize at 1-2 incidents per year, while other forms of violent crime are likely to remain rare or non-existent. However, given the small population and historical variability, occasional spikes in incidents may occur.

In summary, Rich Hill has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders, infrequent rape cases, and near-zero robbery incidents paint a picture of a generally safe community. The slight decline in population coupled with rising median rents may have contributed to the overall downward trend in violent crime. As the city moves forward, maintaining community-based crime prevention strategies and addressing socioeconomic factors could help ensure the continuation of these favorable crime statistics.