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Property Crime Decline in Savannah, Tennessee: A Decade of Progress Along the Tennessee River
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Savannah, Tennessee, a small city nestled in Hardin County, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 618 to 273, representing a 55.8% reduction. During this same period, the city's population grew from 8,594 to 9,303, an 8.2% increase. This juxtaposition of declining crime rates against a growing population presents an intriguing scenario for analysis.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 163 burglaries, which dropped to 50 in 2022, a 69.3% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 19.0 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 5.4 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.38% in 2010, peaking at 0.45% in 2016, and settling at 0.37% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's contribution to state burglary figures has remained relatively stable.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial reduction. From 427 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 203 in 2022, a 52.5% drop. The rate per 1,000 people declined from 49.7 in 2010 to 21.8 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.36% in 2010 to 0.27% in 2022, indicating that the city's improvement in this category outpaced the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed more volatility but ultimately decreased. There were 28 incidents in 2010, which reduced to 20 in 2022, a 28.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 3.3 in 2010 to 2.1 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.26% in 2010, reaching a low of 0.11% in 2022, suggesting a significant improvement relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low but variable. From 1 case in 2010, it peaked at 5 cases in 2015, and returned to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0.12 in 2010 to a high of 0.57 in 2015, ending at 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied widely, from 0.13% in 2010 to a high of 0.87% in 2015, before dropping to 0% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $33,841 in 2013 to $38,261 in 2022, property crimes decreased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the decrease in owner-occupied housing (from 67% in 2013 to 57% in 2022) and the reduction in property crimes, which may seem counterintuitive but could suggest other factors at play.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), property crimes could further decrease by approximately 25-30% if current socioeconomic trends continue. This would potentially bring the total number of property crimes to around 200 annually.
In conclusion, Savannah has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime statistics over the past decade. The significant reductions across all categories of property crime, coupled with population growth and increasing median income, paint a picture of a city moving in a positive direction. While challenges remain, particularly in maintaining low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, the overall trend suggests a safer, more prosperous community emerging. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic growth and community engagement will be crucial in sustaining and improving upon these positive trends in property crime reduction.
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