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Property Crime Decline in Pilot Mountain: A Decade of Positive Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pilot Mountain, located in North Carolina, has experienced notable changes in its property crime landscape over the years. From 2011 to 2018, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 103 to 42, representing a 59.2% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 3,612 to 3,970, a 9.9% increase.
Burglary incidents in the city showed a fluctuating trend. In 2011, there were 21 burglaries, which increased to 26 in 2014 before dropping sharply to 4 in 2018. This represents an overall decrease of 81% from 2011 to 2018. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.81 in 2011 to 1.01 in 2018. The city's share of state burglaries also fluctuated, peaking at 0.06% in 2014 before falling to 0.02% in 2018. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or increased community vigilance over time.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the area, showed a consistent downward trend. Cases dropped from 80 in 2011 to 34 in 2018, a 57.5% decrease. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people fell from 22.15 in 2011 to 8.56 in 2018. Despite population growth, the city maintained a relatively stable share of state larceny-theft incidents, ranging between 0.05% and 0.08% during this period. This trend indicates a substantial improvement in preventing minor thefts and shoplifting incidents.
Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. From 2 cases in 2011, it increased to 4 cases in 2015 and 2018. Despite this nominal increase, the rate per 1,000 people only slightly increased from 0.55 in 2011 to 1.01 in 2018. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% in 2011 to 0.05% in 2018, suggesting that while local numbers remained low, they increased relative to state trends.
Arson cases were rare in the city, with only one reported incident in 2016. This single case represented 0.17% of state arson cases that year. The infrequency of arson cases makes it difficult to establish a meaningful trend, but it does indicate that arson is not a significant concern for the community.
A strong correlation appears to exist between the decrease in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $44,111 in 2013 to $56,124 in 2018, total property crimes fell from 121 to 42. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that burglaries could potentially decrease to near-zero levels, while larceny-theft might stabilize around 25-30 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain low, potentially fluctuating between 1-3 cases per year.
In summary, Pilot Mountain has seen a remarkable reduction in property crimes over the observed period, with significant decreases in burglaries and larceny-theft. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, paints a picture of a community that has effectively addressed property crime issues. The forecast suggests a continuation of these positive trends, potentially leading to even lower crime rates in the coming years.
