Robbery trends show a notable decrease over time. In 2010, there were 16 robberies (1.62 per 1,000 people), compared to 5 in 2022 (0.40 per 1,000 people). This represents a significant 68.75% decrease in robberies. The city's contribution to state robberies also decreased from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.10% in 2022. This reduction in robberies, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, is a positive development for public safety in the community.

Aggravated assault incidents have shown some fluctuation but an overall slight increase. In 2010, there were 31 cases (3.13 per 1,000 people), while in 2022, there were 31 cases (2.51 per 1,000 people). Despite the same number of incidents, the rate per 1,000 people decreased due to population growth. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults decreased slightly from 0.23% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022. This suggests that while the absolute number of assaults has remained stable, the city has improved its relative standing compared to state-wide trends.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in population density from 1,830 per square mile in 2010 to 2,285 in 2022 coincides with changes in crime rates, particularly the decrease in robberies and the stabilization of aggravated assaults per capita. Additionally, there appears to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime trends. For instance, the Black population percentage increased from 22% in 2013 to 34% in 2022, while the Hispanic population decreased from 34% to 21% during the same period. These demographic shifts coincide with the observed changes in violent crime rates, though causation cannot be inferred from correlation alone.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current trends. If current patterns persist, the city may see a further slight decrease in robberies, while murder rates might stabilize or slightly increase. Aggravated assaults are projected to remain relatively stable in absolute numbers but may continue to decrease on a per capita basis if population growth continues at its current rate.

In summary, Selma has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime rates against a backdrop of significant population growth. The most notable improvements have been in robbery rates, while murders have seen a slight increase from a very low base. The stability in aggravated assault numbers, despite population growth, suggests some success in maintaining public safety. These trends, coupled with demographic changes, paint a picture of a city in transition, facing both challenges and opportunities in crime prevention and community safety.