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Property Crime Decline in Four Oaks: A Decade of Safety Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Four Oaks, a town in North Carolina, has experienced a notable decrease in property crime rates while undergoing significant population growth over the past decade. From 2012 to 2021, the total number of property crimes in Four Oaks decreased by 39.7%, dropping from 63 to 38 incidents. During this same period, the town's population grew by 36.7%, increasing from 5,241 to 7,164 residents. This inverse relationship between crime rates and population growth presents an intriguing pattern for the town.
Burglary rates in Four Oaks have shown a considerable decline over time. The number of reported burglaries decreased from 21 in 2012 to 17 in 2021, representing a 19% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased by 40.9%, from 4.01 in 2012 to 2.37 in 2021. Interestingly, Four Oaks' share of state burglaries increased from 0.04% in 2012 to 0.07% in 2021, suggesting that the town may be performing better than other areas of North Carolina in reducing burglaries.
Larceny-theft trends in Four Oaks demonstrate an even more significant decrease. The number of larceny-thefts dropped by 53.8%, from 39 in 2012 to 18 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 people fell by 66.3%, from 7.44 in 2012 to 2.51 in 2021. The town's share of state larceny-thefts decreased from 0.03% to 0.02% over this period, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state average. This substantial decrease suggests improved property security or more effective law enforcement strategies in Four Oaks.
Motor vehicle theft rates in Four Oaks have remained relatively stable. There were 3 reported cases in both 2012 and 2021. However, due to population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased by 26.3%, from 0.57 in 2012 to 0.42 in 2021. The town's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.03% to 0.02%, indicating that the local trend is consistent with state-level changes.
Arson data for Four Oaks shows zero reported cases from 2012 to 2021, with a consistent 0% share of state arsons. This absence of arson cases is a positive indicator for community safety and property protection in the town.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density in Four Oaks. As the population density increased from 2,147 per square mile in 2012 to 2,935 per square mile in 2021, the overall property crime rate decreased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between rising median income and declining property crime rates. The median income in Four Oaks increased from $41,646 in 2013 to $59,114 in 2021, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes.
Based on these trends, predictive models forecast that by 2029, Four Oaks may experience a further reduction in overall property crime rates. The burglary rate is projected to stabilize around 2 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft may continue its downward trend to approximately 1.5 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft rates are expected to remain low, potentially dropping below 0.4 per 1,000 residents.
In conclusion, Four Oaks has demonstrated a commendable improvement in property crime rates despite significant population growth. The most substantial reductions were seen in larceny-theft and burglary, while motor vehicle theft remained stable and arson was non-existent. These trends, coupled with increasing population density and rising median incomes, suggest a positive trajectory for community safety and economic development in Four Oaks.
