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Swansboro's Fluctuating Violent Crime Trends: Coastal Town's Safety Profile
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Swansboro, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 3 incidents in 2010 to 5 in 2022, representing a 66.7% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 6,796 in 2010 to 7,952 in 2022, a 17% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low and stable. There were no murders reported in most years, with only one incident in 2012 and another in 2019. This translates to a rate of 0.13 murders per 1,000 people in those years. The percentage of state murders attributed to Swansboro was 0.36% in 2012 and 0.27% in 2019, indicating that despite these isolated incidents, the city contributes minimally to the state's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents have shown some variability. The city reported 3 cases in 2011 (0.44 per 1,000 people), no cases for several years, and then 1 case in 2020 (0.13 per 1,000 people), rising to 3 cases in 2021 (0.36 per 1,000 people), and decreasing to 2 cases in 2022 (0.25 per 1,000 people). The percentage of state rapes attributed to the city fluctuated accordingly, from 0.26% in 2011 to 0.16% in 2021 and 0.1% in 2022.
Robbery rates in the city have been low and declining. The highest number of robberies was 2 in 2011 and 2012 (0.29 and 0.28 per 1,000 people, respectively). Since 2017, there have been no reported robberies. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics peaked at 0.03% in 2011 and 2012, dropping to 0% in recent years.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of cases increased from 2 in 2010 (0.29 per 1,000 people) to a peak of 14 in 2018 (1.93 per 1,000 people), before decreasing to 3 cases in 2022 (0.38 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics rose from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.11% in 2018, returning to 0.01% in 2022.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,041 per square mile in 2010 to 3,558 per square mile in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults. However, this correlation weakened in the most recent years as crime rates decreased despite continued population growth.
The racial composition of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing around 85-89% of the total. There doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between changes in racial demographics and violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may experience a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 7-8 incidents annually. This forecast assumes continuation of current population growth trends and no significant changes in socioeconomic factors.
In summary, Swansboro has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. While the overall number of violent crimes has increased, the rate per capita has remained relatively low compared to state averages. The city's growth and increasing density appear to have some influence on crime rates, but recent years have shown a decoupling of this relationship. Moving forward, maintaining community-focused crime prevention strategies will be crucial in managing the projected modest increase in violent crimes.
