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Property Crime Decline in Early, Texas: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Early, Texas, a small urban area with a population of 3,134 as of 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 69.57%, from 69 incidents to 21. During this same period, the population grew by 9.81%, from 2,854 to 3,134 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 19 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 4 in 2022, representing a 78.95% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 6.66 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.28 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide burglary figures remained relatively stable, consistently at 0.01% of the state total, with a brief increase to 0.02% in 2014, 2016, and 2020. This substantial decrease in burglaries suggests improved security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in the area.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant decline. In 2010, 47 larceny-theft incidents were reported, compared to 16 in 2022, marking a 65.96% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 16.47 in 2010 to 5.11 in 2022. The city's share of state-wide larceny-theft incidents decreased from 0.01% to 0.00% over this period, indicating that the reduction in this crime category outpaced the state average. This trend could be attributed to enhanced community awareness or improved surveillance systems.
Motor vehicle theft rates in the city have remained relatively low and stable. In 2010, there were 3 reported cases, which decreased to 1 in 2022, representing a 66.67% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.05 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022. The city's contribution to state-wide motor vehicle theft figures has consistently been minimal, ranging from 0.00% to 0.01% throughout the period. This low and stable rate suggests effective local strategies in deterring vehicle thefts.
Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported cases in most years, with occasional single incidents in 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2020. The city's contribution to state-wide arson figures fluctuated between 0.00% and 0.05% during these years. The rarity of arson cases indicates that it is not a significant concern for the community, but the occasional occurrences warrant continued vigilance.
A notable correlation exists between property crime trends and homeownership rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 73% in 2013 to 75% in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in property crimes. This suggests that higher homeownership rates may contribute to a more stable and secure community environment. Additionally, the rise in median income from $46,612 in 2013 to $59,094 in 2022 coincides with the overall decline in property crimes, indicating a potential link between improved economic conditions and reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, burglary and larceny-theft are expected to decline further, potentially reaching historic lows. Motor vehicle theft is likely to remain low but may fluctuate slightly. Arson incidents are projected to remain rare and sporadic.
In conclusion, Early has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime rates over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with consistently low rates of motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a community becoming increasingly safer. These positive trends, along with rising homeownership rates and median incomes, suggest a promising outlook for the city's safety and economic stability in the coming years.
