Motor vehicle theft showed sporadic occurrences. The city experienced 3 incidents in 2011 (0.4% of state total), but had zero reported cases in most other years, including 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 1.4 in 2011 but remained at 0 for most years, including 2022. This suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a persistent issue in the community.

Arson has been rare, with only one reported incident in 2015, accounting for 0.56% of the state's total that year. This translates to a rate of 0.46 per 1,000 residents for 2015, but zero in all other years. The isolated nature of this incident indicates it was likely an anomaly rather than a trend.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $48,705 in 2013 to $57,456 in 2021, property crimes generally decreased. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units rose from 74% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes. This suggests that increased home ownership and higher incomes may contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in the city will likely remain low, potentially stabilizing at 1-2 incidents per year. The consistent downward trend and the city's relatively small size support this prediction.

In summary, Cottonwood has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The substantial reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the rarity of motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a community that has become safer over time. These positive trends, alongside increases in median income and home ownership, suggest a growing stability and security within the city that is likely to continue in the near future.