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Property Crime Trends in Challis, Idaho: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Challis, located in Idaho, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2011 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total property crime incidents, with a notable overall decrease from 9 incidents in 2011 to 7 in 2022, representing a 22.22% reduction. During this same timeframe, the population saw a decrease from 2,799 in 2011 to 2,381 in 2022, a 14.93% decline.
The burglary trend in the city shows significant variability. In 2011, there were no reported burglaries, but this increased to 7 incidents in 2016, before decreasing to 1 incident in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2016 at 3.02 and fell to 0.42 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.17% in 2016 and settling at 0.05% in 2022. This volatility suggests periods of heightened vulnerability followed by improved security measures or increased law enforcement effectiveness.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a general downward trend. From 9 incidents in 2011, the number decreased to 5 in 2022, a 44.44% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 3.22 in 2011 to 2.10 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.06% over the years. This decline in larceny-theft, despite population decrease, suggests improved community vigilance or more effective prevention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been sporadic. There were no reported incidents in most years, with single incidents reported in 2012, 2015, and 2022. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was 0.37, 0.39, and 0.42 respectively. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0% to 0.11%, with 0.08% in 2022. These low numbers indicate that motor vehicle theft is not a persistent problem in the area, but occasional incidents do occur.
Arson incidents have been rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2012, representing 0.55% of state arsons that year. The rate was 0.37 per 1,000 people. The absence of arson in other years suggests it is not a significant ongoing concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,418 per square mile in 2011 to 1,206 in 2022, property crimes showed an overall downward trend, despite some fluctuations. This could suggest that lower population density may contribute to reduced opportunities for property crimes.
Looking ahead, based on the observed trends, we can predict that property crime in Challis may continue to decrease slightly or stabilize over the next five years (up to 2029). The total number of property crimes could potentially range between 5 to 8 incidents annually, with larceny-theft likely remaining the most common type of property crime. However, given the small numbers involved, even minor fluctuations could significantly impact the overall trend.
In summary, Challis has seen an overall improvement in its property crime situation from 2011 to 2022, with decreases in most categories despite population decline. The most significant reductions were observed in larceny-theft, while burglary showed the most variability. The city's contribution to state crime figures remains relatively small across all categories. These trends, coupled with the correlation between decreasing population density and reduced crime, paint a picture of a community that has become generally safer in terms of property crime over the past decade.
