Motor vehicle theft in the city showed more volatility but an overall decreasing trend. From 5 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 9 in 2016 before decreasing to 2 in 2022, a 60% reduction from 2010 levels. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.83 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated significantly, ranging from 0.04% to 0.18%, indicating that local trends didn't always align with state patterns.

Arson cases in the city were sporadic and infrequent. The data shows zero incidents in many years, with occasional spikes of 1 or 2 cases. The highest percentage of state arsons was 1.32% in 2014, dropping to 0.72% in 2022. Given the low numbers, it's difficult to discern a clear trend, but the infrequency of cases suggests it's not a persistent problem in the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $36,768 in 2013 to $41,780 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 65 to 17. Additionally, there's a positive correlation between home ownership rates and reduced crime. The percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 51% in 2013 to 57% in 2022, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Carrollton may see its total property crimes further reduce to around 10-12 incidents annually. Burglaries and larceny-theft are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching 2-3 and 6-8 incidents respectively. Motor vehicle theft might stabilize at 1-2 incidents per year, while arson cases are expected to remain rare and sporadic.

In summary, Carrollton has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The substantial decreases across all categories of property crime, coupled with increases in median income and home ownership, paint a picture of a community that has become safer and more stable. These trends, if continued, suggest a positive outlook for the city's safety and economic well-being in the coming years.