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Property Crime Decline in Cabool, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cabool, located in Missouri, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the years, alongside changes in its population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 41 to 1, representing a 97.6% reduction. During this same period, the city's population decreased by 13.7%, from 4,776 in 2010 to 4,124 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 6 burglaries, which peaked at 14 in 2011 before steadily declining to just 1 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.26 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this decrease in absolute numbers, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.06% in 2019 before dropping to 0.01% in 2022. This suggests that while local efforts may have reduced burglaries, the city's contribution to state-wide burglary statistics has varied over time.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a significant decline. From a high of 52 cases in 2014, the number dropped to 0 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 6.70 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft statistics peaked at 0.06% in 2019 but dropped to 0% by 2022. This dramatic reduction suggests effective local strategies in combating theft-related crimes.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the period. The highest number recorded was 4 in 2017, with several years reporting no incidents. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.81 (in 2017) and was 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.02% of the state total.
Arson cases have been rare in the city, with only two reported incidents over the 13-year period - one in 2012 and another in 2016. This translates to a negligible rate per 1,000 people and a minimal impact on state arson statistics.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate negative correlation between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $29,163 in 2013 to $37,369 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. However, this relationship is not perfectly linear, suggesting other factors are at play.
Population density shows a weak negative correlation with property crime rates. As density decreased from 1,224 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,057 in 2022, crime rates also generally decreased, but not consistently.
The percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased slightly from 73% in 2013 to 77% in 2021, before settling at 73% in 2022. This stability in home ownership coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating a connection between community stability and reduced crime rates.
Racial distribution remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing the majority (87-95% throughout the period). This stability in demographic composition doesn't appear to have a strong correlation with the changing crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's forecasted that property crime rates in Cabool will continue to decrease over the next five years, potentially reaching near-zero levels by 2029. However, this prediction assumes current trends and efforts continue without significant changes in socio-economic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Cabool has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crimes over the past decade, with particularly significant decreases in burglary and larceny-theft. This positive trend, occurring alongside moderate increases in median income and stable home ownership rates, suggests effective community and law enforcement efforts in crime prevention. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for the continued safety and well-being of its residents.
