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Property Crime Decline in Andrews, North Carolina: A Decade of Positive Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Andrews, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 61.25%, from 80 to 31 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 6.05%, from 4,888 to 4,592 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decline. In 2011, there were 25 burglaries, which decreased to just 1 in 2022, representing a 96% reduction. The burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 5.11 in 2011 to 0.22 in 2022. Interestingly, while the city's share of state burglaries was 0.05% in 2011, it dropped to 0% by 2022, indicating that burglaries in the city have become extremely rare relative to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased significantly over the years. In 2011, there were 52 larceny-theft cases, which reduced to 29 in 2022, a 44.23% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people declined from 10.64 in 2011 to 6.32 in 2022. The city's percentage of state larceny-theft cases decreased from 0.04% in 2011 to 0.02% in 2022, suggesting that the city has improved its position relative to the state average for this type of crime.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex trend. While there were only 3 cases in 2011, this number rose to 9 in 2014 before dropping back to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 0.61 in 2011 to 1.94 in 2014, finally settling at 0.22 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.03% in 2011 to 0.11% in 2014 before decreasing to 0.01% in 2022, indicating a volatile but ultimately improving situation.
Arson cases in the city remained relatively stable, with no reported cases in 2011 and 2014, one case in 2015, and one case again in 2022. The arson rate per 1,000 people was 0 in 2011 and 2014, rising to 0.22 in 2015 and 2022. The city's percentage of state arson cases increased from 0% in 2011 to 0.15% in 2015, and then decreased slightly to 0.11% in 2022, suggesting a minor increase in the city's contribution to state arson statistics.
There appears to be a strong correlation between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,839 per square mile in 2011 to 2,667 per square mile in 2022, the overall property crime rate also declined. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between property crime and homeownership rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied homes decreased from 83% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, property crime rates also showed a downward trend, suggesting that changes in community composition may have influenced crime patterns.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall downward trend to continue, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trajectory, property crimes could potentially decrease by another 20-25% by 2029, with burglary and motor vehicle theft rates remaining low and stable. Larceny-theft is likely to continue its gradual decline, while arson cases may fluctuate but remain relatively rare.
In conclusion, Andrews has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade. The substantial decreases in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the overall downward trend in property crime rates, suggest improved safety and security for residents. These positive changes, occurring alongside demographic shifts, indicate that the city has effectively managed its crime challenges despite population fluctuations and changes in homeownership patterns.
