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Portland's Property Crime Decline: A Decade of Improvement Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Portland, located in Tennessee, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 61.4%, from 267 to 103 incidents, while the population grew by 19.3%, from 17,480 to 20,859 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 75 burglaries, which decreased to 24 in 2022, representing a 68% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 4.29 in 2010 to 1.15 in 2022, a 73.2% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.29% in 2016 and settling at 0.18% in 2022. This significant reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or law enforcement strategies within the community.
Larceny-theft incidents also decreased substantially. In 2010, there were 182 larceny-thefts, which reduced to 68 in 2022, a 62.6% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 10.41 in 2010 to 3.26 in 2022, a 68.7% reduction. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts decreased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.09% in 2022, indicating a faster decline in larceny-thefts compared to the state average. This trend suggests effective local strategies in preventing petty thefts and shoplifting.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more modest decline. There were 10 incidents in 2010, which increased slightly to 11 in 2022. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people actually decreased from 0.57 in 2010 to 0.53 in 2022, a 7% reduction. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022, indicating that while the raw numbers remained relatively stable, the city improved its position relative to state trends.
Arson cases in the city remained low but showed some fluctuation. From 1 incident in 2010, it increased to 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.06 in 2010 to 0.14 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state arsons increased significantly from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.56% in 2022, suggesting that while arson remained relatively rare, it became more prevalent compared to state averages.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $48,696 in 2013 to $57,569 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 324 to 103. Additionally, the slight increase in racial diversity, particularly the Hispanic population growing from 3% in 2013 to 5% in 2022, coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting that increased diversity did not negatively impact crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, property crime rates could continue to decrease. Total property crimes might fall to around 80-90 incidents per year, with burglaries potentially dropping to 15-20 cases annually, and larceny-thefts to 50-60 incidents. Motor vehicle thefts and arsons are likely to remain relatively stable at their current low levels.
In summary, Portland has demonstrated a significant overall improvement in property crime rates despite population growth. The most substantial reductions were seen in burglaries and larceny-thefts, while motor vehicle thefts and arsons showed more modest changes. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and increasing diversity, paint a picture of a city effectively managing crime while experiencing positive economic and demographic changes.
