Motor vehicle theft in the city demonstrated a more complex pattern. While there was an overall decrease from 42 thefts in 2010 to 39 in 2022, the trend wasn't linear. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.12 in 2010 to 0.98 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's percentage of state motor vehicle thefts decreased significantly from 0.40% in 2010 to 0.22% in 2022, suggesting that motor vehicle theft decreased more rapidly in the city compared to the state average.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low throughout the period, with some fluctuation. The number of arsons decreased from 4 in 2010 to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped slightly from 0.11 to 0.05. The city's contribution to state arson cases varied, starting at 0.53% in 2010, peaking at 1.13% in 2019, and then decreasing to 0.37% by 2022.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 439 per square mile in 2010 to 467 in 2022, property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates in this case. There appears to be a correlation between rising median income and decreasing property crime rates. The median income increased from $63,017 in 2013 to $69,567 in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decrease in overall property crime rates, albeit at a slower pace. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 40-50 cases annually, while larceny-theft may settle in the range of 450-500 incidents per year. Motor vehicle theft is projected to remain relatively stable at 35-45 cases annually, and arson cases are likely to remain in the low single digits.

In conclusion, Oak Ridge has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime rates over the past decade, with significant reductions across all categories. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, paints a picture of a city that has successfully addressed property crime issues while experiencing economic growth. As the city moves forward, maintaining these low crime rates while accommodating further population growth will be key to its continued success and safety.