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Northern Hills: Home Values Double Amidst Stable Ownership in San Antonio Suburb
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
DATA SOURCE
United States Census Bureau: American Community Survey Data (ACS)
Zillow: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)
Northern Hills, a vibrant neighborhood in San Antonio, Texas, has experienced significant changes in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade. From 2013 to 2022, the area witnessed fluctuations in owner-occupancy rates, while average home prices and rent prices generally increased. The homeownership rate in Northern Hills rose from 66% in 2013 to a peak of 73% in 2017, maintaining this level through 2019. During this period, average home prices increased steadily from $129,278 in 2013 to $189,242 in 2019, representing a 46.4% increase. This trend suggests a strong correlation between rising home values and increased homeownership. However, from 2019 to 2022, there was a slight decline in homeownership, dropping to 66% by 2022, despite continued growth in average home prices, which reached $266,114 in 2022.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in Northern Hills shows interesting patterns. The period from 2013 to 2017, when homeownership rates increased from 66% to 73%, coincided with relatively low interest rates ranging from 0.11% to 1%. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2018 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, we observed a decline in homeownership rates from 73% to 66%. This trend aligns with the general principle that lower interest rates tend to encourage homeownership due to more affordable financing options.
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Renter percentages in Northern Hills fluctuated inversely to homeownership rates, decreasing from 34% in 2013 to 27% in 2017-2019, before rising again to 34% by 2022. Average rent prices showed a consistent upward trend, increasing from $1,304 in 2013 to $1,458 in 2022, an 11.8% rise. Interestingly, the highest average rent of $1,506 was recorded in 2019 when the renter percentage was at its lowest (27%), suggesting that lower supply of rental properties may have driven up prices.
In 2023 and 2024, average home prices in Northern Hills continued to evolve. The average home price in 2023 reached $273,195, showing a 2.7% increase from 2022. However, in 2024, there was a slight decrease to $269,871, representing a 1.2% decline from the previous year. This recent trend coincides with higher interest rates, which stood at 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, potentially affecting housing affordability and demand.
Looking ahead, based on historical trends and current market conditions, we can project potential scenarios for the next five years. Average home prices in Northern Hills may continue to experience moderate growth, albeit at a slower pace than previous years, potentially reaching around $290,000 to $300,000 by 2029. Average rent prices could also see a steady increase, potentially rising to approximately $1,600 to $1,700 per month in the same period. However, these projections are subject to various economic factors and local market conditions.
In summary, Northern Hills has demonstrated a dynamic housing market over the past decade. The neighborhood has seen overall increases in both average home prices and average rent prices, with fluctuations in homeownership rates that appear to be influenced by both property values and interest rates. The recent stabilization of home prices and high interest rates may signal a period of market adjustment, potentially affecting future homeownership trends and rental demand in this San Antonio community.
