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Moscow, Idaho: Violent Crime Trends Amid University Town Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Moscow, Idaho, home to the University of Idaho, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, with a notable increase from 7 incidents in 2019 to 24 in 2022, representing a 242.86% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 25,683 in 2010 to 27,710 in 2022, a 7.89% increase.
Murder rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. The city recorded no murders in most years, but saw spikes in 2011 (1 case), 2013 (1 case), 2015 (3 cases), and 2022 (4 cases). The murder rate per 1,000 people jumped from 0 to 0.14 in 2022, the highest in the observed period. Notably, the city's contribution to state murder cases rose dramatically in certain years, peaking at 15.79% in 2015 and 13.79% in 2022. These figures suggest that while murders are infrequent, they can significantly impact the city's crime statistics when they occur.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with the highest number recorded in 2017 (8 cases) and the lowest in 2015 and 2021 (0 cases). The rape rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 0.29, with 2017 showing the highest rate. The city's percentage of state rape cases varied widely, from 0% in some years to a high of 1.83% in 2013. This indicates that while rape is not consistently prevalent, it remains a concern that requires ongoing attention.
Robbery trends show a general decline over the observed period. The highest number of robberies (5) occurred in 2017, while several years, including 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022, saw no reported robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.18 in 2017 and has since dropped to 0. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has also decreased, from a high of 3.11% in 2017 to 0% in recent years, indicating a positive trend in robbery prevention.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from a low of 6 in 2019 and 2020 to a high of 25 in 2012. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0.22 and 0.96. The city's percentage of state aggravated assault cases has generally remained below 1%, with the highest being 1.39% in 2012. This suggests that while aggravated assault is a persistent issue, it has not shown a consistent upward trend.
A strong correlation exists between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,717 per square mile in 2010 to 4,010 in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in violent crime incidents, particularly noticeable in the last few years of the data set.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential increase in overall violent crime incidents if current trends continue. The model predicts that murder rates may stabilize but remain a concern, while aggravated assault could see a slight uptick. Robbery rates are expected to remain low, while rape incidents may fluctuate but not show a significant increase.
In summary, Moscow, Idaho has experienced varying violent crime rates over the past decade, with recent years showing an uptick in certain categories, particularly murder and aggravated assault. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has been notable in specific years, especially for murder. While the overall violent crime rate remains relatively low compared to national averages, the recent increase and the predicted upward trend for the next five years suggest a need for continued vigilance and proactive crime prevention strategies.
