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Madison, Arkansas: Violent Crime Trends Amid Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Madison, Arkansas, with a population of 905 in 2022, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. This small city has experienced notable fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. The total number of violent crimes increased from 2 in 2011 to 3 in 2019, representing a 50% increase, while the population grew from 1,109 to 1,220 during the same period, a 10% increase.
Examining murder trends, there were no reported cases in either 2011 or 2019. This consistency in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at zero, and the city maintained 0% of the state's murder cases throughout this period. This suggests that Madison has managed to avoid lethal violence despite other changes in its crime landscape.
Rape incidents in the city showed a decrease from 1 case in 2011 to 0 in 2019. This represents a 100% decrease in rape cases. The rape rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.90 in 2011 to 0 in 2019. The city's share of the state's rape cases also decreased from 0.12% to 0%, indicating an improvement in this area of violent crime relative to both its population and the state's overall figures.
Robbery trends reveal an increase from 0 cases in 2011 to 1 case in 2019. This change represents an increase from 0 to 0.82 robberies per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's robbery cases rose from 0% to 0.07%, suggesting a slight worsening in this category of violent crime relative to state figures.
Aggravated assault cases in the city doubled from 1 in 2011 to 2 in 2019. This increase outpaced population growth, with the rate per 1,000 people rising from 0.90 to 1.64. The city's share of the state's aggravated assaults increased slightly from 0.01% to 0.02%, indicating a disproportionate rise in this crime category compared to state trends.
Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the increase in violent crimes and the rise in median rent, which grew from $523 in 2013 to $738 in 2019. Additionally, the racial composition of the city changed significantly during this period, with the Black population decreasing from 76% in 2013 to 53% in 2019, while the Hispanic population increased from 1% to 28%. These demographic shifts coincided with the changes in violent crime rates, suggesting a possible correlation.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, if current patterns continue, the city may see a slight increase in overall violent crimes by 2029. The model suggests the number of violent crimes could reach 4 or 5 annually, with aggravated assaults potentially accounting for the majority of this increase.
In summary, Madison has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While murders have remained at zero and rape cases have decreased, robberies and aggravated assaults have shown increases. These trends, coupled with significant demographic changes and rising housing costs, paint a picture of a city in transition. The forecasted increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, suggests that local law enforcement and community leaders may need to implement targeted strategies to address these specific areas of concern in the coming years.
