Robbery rates in Harrisburg have remained consistently low. There was only one reported robbery in 2012 and 2015, with zero incidents in all other years from 2012 to 2022. This translates to a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people in most years, and a 0% share of state robberies, indicating that robbery is not a significant concern in the city.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Harrisburg. The number of incidents increased from 7 in 2012 to 11 in 2022, a 57.14% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.54 in 2012 to 2.65 in 2022. However, the city's share of state aggravated assaults decreased slightly from 0.10% to 0.09% over this period, suggesting that while the local rate increased, it did not outpace the state's overall increase.

There appears to be a correlation between violent crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,868 per square mile in 2012 to 1,707 in 2022, violent crimes per capita increased. This suggests that the reduction in population did not lead to a proportional decrease in crime.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Harrisburg may see a potential increase in murders to 2 per year, with the rate rising to 0.48 per 1,000 people. Rape incidents may potentially rise to 6-7 per year, with a rate of 1.45-1.69 per 1,000 people. Aggravated assaults could possibly increase to 15-16 per year, with a rate of 3.62-3.86 per 1,000 people. Robbery rates are likely to remain low or at zero.

In summary, Harrisburg has experienced a concerning increase in violent crimes, particularly in murders and aggravated assaults, despite a decreasing population. The city's share of state crimes has grown in some categories, indicating a disproportionate increase compared to state averages. These trends suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community interventions to address the rising violent crime rates in this small Arkansas city.