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Grayville's Declining Violent Crime: A Decade of Improvement in Illinois
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Grayville, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both its violent crime rates and population. The total number of violent crimes decreased from 15 in 2010 to 1 in 2022, marking a significant 93.3% reduction. During this same period, the population slightly decreased from 2,546 in 2010 to 2,449 in 2022, a 3.8% decline.
Examining murder trends, Grayville consistently reported zero murders throughout the available data set from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is notable, especially considering the population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at zero, and the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics was consistently 0.0%.
Rape incidents in the city were largely unreported or non-existent for most of the observed years. However, in 2021, there was one reported rape, which accounted for 0.11% of the state's total. This single incident translates to a rate of approximately 0.41 per 1,000 people based on the 2021 population of 2,466. Given the small population, even one incident can significantly impact statistics, highlighting the importance of context in analyzing crime data for small communities.
Robbery trends in Grayville showed sporadic occurrences. The city reported one robbery in 2010, 2014, 2016, and 2019. These incidents represented between 0.01% to 0.0% of the state's total robberies in their respective years. The robbery rate fluctuated between 0 and 0.39 per 1,000 people, with the highest rate occurring in 2010 when the population was 2,546. The infrequent nature of robberies suggests they are not a persistent issue in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults decreased from 14 in 2010 to 1 in 2022, a 92.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 5.5 in 2010 to 0.41 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics also decreased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022. This significant decrease in aggravated assaults has been the primary driver of the overall reduction in violent crimes.
Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density fluctuated, violent crime rates tended to follow a similar pattern, though not consistently. For instance, the population density peaked at 1,300 per square mile in 2018, coinciding with a period of relatively higher violent crime rates. The racial composition of the city remained predominantly white throughout the period, with minimal changes, making it difficult to draw strong correlations between racial demographics and crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that violent crime rates in Grayville will continue to remain low or potentially decrease further over the next five years (up to 2029). The consistent downward trend in aggravated assaults, coupled with the sporadic nature of other violent crimes, suggests that the city may experience years with very few or no reported violent crimes.
In summary, Grayville has demonstrated a significant improvement in its violent crime situation over the past decade. The substantial decrease in aggravated assaults, coupled with consistently low rates of other violent crimes, paints a picture of a community that has become safer over time. This trend, if continued, could positively impact the quality of life for residents and potentially attract new inhabitants or businesses to the area.
