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Gautier, Mississippi: Property Crime Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Gautier, located in Mississippi, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 39.4%, from 686 to 416 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 6.2%, from 19,530 to 20,736 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 230 burglaries, which decreased to 76 in 2022, representing a 67% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate fell from 11.8 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.7 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 1.33% in 2010 to 2.31% in 2022, indicating that the reduction in burglaries was less pronounced compared to the state average.
Larceny-theft incidents also demonstrated a downward trend, though less dramatic than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts decreased from 411 in 2010 to 293 in 2022, a 28.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 21 in 2010 to 14.1 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state larceny-thefts increased from 1.23% to 2.07% over this period, suggesting that the city's reduction in larceny-thefts was less significant than the state's overall decrease.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents fluctuated, with 45 cases in 2010, peaking at 70 in 2017, and settling at 47 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, from 2.3 in 2010 to 2.3 in 2022. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 1.39% in 2010 to 2.77% in 2022, indicating that the city's motor vehicle theft rates did not improve as much as the state average.
Arson cases in the city have been relatively low but variable. The number of arsons ranged from 0 to 8 per year, with 2 cases reported in both 2010 and 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained consistently low, at about 0.1. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated, peaking at 3.19% in 2021 before settling at 2.86% in 2022, suggesting that arson rates in the city have been somewhat higher than the state average in recent years.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $59,709 in 2013 to $66,107 in 2021, overall property crime rates decreased. However, this trend was not consistent, as evidenced by the sharp drop in median income to $52,281 in 2022, which coincided with a slight increase in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years, we anticipate a continuation of the overall downward trend in property crimes. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 70-80 incidents per year, while larceny-thefts may continue to decrease slightly, potentially reaching around 250-270 cases annually. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain relatively stable, fluctuating between 45-55 incidents per year. Arson cases are likely to remain low, with 0-3 incidents annually.
In summary, Gautier has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This trend has occurred alongside modest population growth and fluctuations in median income. While the city's share of state property crimes has increased in some categories, the absolute numbers and rates per capita have generally improved. These trends suggest that Gautier is making progress in combating property crime, although there is still room for improvement, especially in relation to state averages.
