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Fluctuating Violent Crime Trends in Hermann, Missouri: A Decade of Low but Variable Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hermann, located in Missouri, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, ranging from a low of 1 in 2021 to a high of 15 in 2011. The city's population grew by approximately 2.6% during this period, from 3,748 in 2010 to 3,737 in 2022.
Regarding murder trends, the city has maintained a remarkably low rate, with only two incidents reported over the 13-year period. These occurred in 2015 and 2020, each representing 0.24% and 0.16% of the state's total murders, respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.27 in 2015 and 0.26 in 2020. Despite these isolated incidents, the overall murder rate remains exceptionally low, averaging 0.04 per 1,000 people across the entire period.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and relatively low. The highest number of reported rapes was 3 in 2016, representing 0.16% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people reached its maximum of 0.76 that year. Over the 13-year period, there were seven years with reported rape cases, averaging 0.18 per 1,000 people annually when incidents occurred. The percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city fluctuated between 0% and 0.16%, indicating a minimal contribution to the state's overall figures.
Robbery has been an extremely rare occurrence in the city, with only one incident reported in 2017. This single case represented 0.02% of the state's robberies that year, with a rate of 0.25 per 1,000 people. The absence of robberies in all other years underscores the city's overall safety in this category.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though numbers have fluctuated considerably. The highest number of aggravated assaults was 14 in 2011, representing 0.1% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 3.92 that same year. Over the period, the aggravated assault rate averaged 1.31 per 1,000 people annually, with significant variations year to year. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases ranged from 0% to 0.1%, indicating a relatively small impact on state-wide figures.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. Years with higher population density, such as 2017 and 2018, tended to have slightly higher violent crime rates. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout the entire period.
Looking ahead, based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that violent crime rates in Hermann will likely remain low but variable over the next five years (up to 2029). The city may continue to experience sporadic spikes in aggravated assaults, but murders, rapes, and robberies are expected to remain rare occurrences. The overall violent crime rate is predicted to fluctuate between 1 and 8 incidents per year, maintaining the city's status as a relatively safe community.
In conclusion, Hermann has demonstrated a generally low and fluctuating violent crime rate over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. Despite occasional spikes, the city's contribution to state-wide violent crime remains minimal. The projected stability in crime rates, coupled with modest population growth, suggests that Hermann is likely to maintain its character as a relatively safe Missouri community in the coming years.
