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Violent Crime Trends in Clarkton, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Clarkton, Missouri, is a small urban area with a population of 1,471 as of 2022. This analysis examines the violent crime trends in the city from 2010 to 2020, during which time the total number of violent crimes fluctuated significantly. The city experienced a peak of 11 violent crimes in 2014, followed by a decline to zero reported incidents in 2020. This represents a 100% decrease in violent crime over the decade. Concurrently, the population decreased by 8.7% from 1,704 in 2010 to 1,555.5 in 2020.
Regarding murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, the city maintained a consistent record of zero incidents throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2020. This stability in the absence of murders is notable, especially given the population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at zero, and the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics was consistently 0% during this time.
Rape incidents in the city were rare, with only one reported case in 2018. This single incident represented 0.05% of the state's total rape cases for that year. The rape rate per 1,000 people in 2018 was approximately 0.61, based on the population of 1,649. Given the isolated nature of this incident and the absence of reported rapes in other years, it's difficult to establish a trend or draw broader conclusions about sexual violence in the community.
Robbery statistics for the city show a consistent pattern of zero incidents from 2010 to 2020. This absence of robberies indicates a relatively safe environment in terms of property-related violent crime. The robbery rate per 1,000 people remained at zero throughout the decade, and the city did not contribute to the state's robbery statistics during this period.
Aggravated assault was the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated over the years, peaking at 11 incidents in 2014 before declining to zero in 2020. In 2014, when the population was 1,798, the aggravated assault rate was approximately 6.12 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics varied, reaching a high of 0.08% in 2014 before dropping to 0% by 2020. This trend suggests a significant improvement in public safety related to serious assaults over the decade.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, coincided with a decrease in population density from 1,508 per square mile in 2010 to 1,377 per square mile in 2020. Additionally, there was a slight increase in the Hispanic population from 13% in 2013 to 15% in 2020, while the white population remained relatively stable at around 76%. The Black population decreased from 8% in 2013 to 4% in 2020. These demographic shifts occurred alongside the overall reduction in violent crime, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the low crime rates observed in recent years. Given the small population and the complete absence of reported violent crimes in 2020, the model predicts that the city may maintain very low to zero violent crime incidents in the coming years, assuming no significant changes in socioeconomic conditions or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Clarkton has demonstrated a notable improvement in its violent crime situation over the past decade, with a complete elimination of reported violent crimes by 2020. The most significant change was observed in aggravated assaults, which decreased from their peak in 2014 to zero in 2020. This positive trend, coupled with demographic shifts and population decline, paints a picture of a small city that has become increasingly safe for its residents. However, continued vigilance and community engagement will be crucial to maintain these low crime rates in the future.
