Loading Content...
Fairfax, Minnesota: Property Crime Trends in a Small Community with Rising Home Ownership
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fairfax, Minnesota, a small community with a population of 1,383 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past eight years. From 2015 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 25 to 5, representing an 80% reduction. During this same period, the population showed slight variability, decreasing from 1,180 in 2015 to 1,383 in 2022, a net increase of 17.2%.
Burglary trends in the city have been inconsistent over the years. In 2015, there was one reported burglary, followed by no incidents in 2016 and 2018. The rate then fluctuated between 0 and 1 case per year through 2022. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0 to 0.85, with the highest rate occurring in 2015. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained minimal, consistently at 0.01% when burglaries occurred. This low and fluctuating burglary rate suggests that home security is generally good, but occasional incidents still occur.
Larceny-theft has shown a more pronounced downward trend. In 2015, there were 24 reported cases, which gradually decreased to just 4 cases in 2022, representing an 83.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 20.34 in 2015 to 2.89 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents also decreased from 0.03% to 0.01% over this period. This significant reduction in larceny-theft suggests improved community vigilance and potentially more effective law enforcement strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been rare, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number of cases was 2 in 2018, translating to a rate of 1.65 per 1,000 residents. When incidents occurred, they represented between 0.01% and 0.02% of state motor vehicle thefts. The infrequency of these crimes indicates that vehicle security is generally not a major concern for residents.
Arson cases have been extremely rare in the city. Only one incident was reported in 2019, representing 0.26% of state arson cases that year. With this single occurrence, the arson rate per 1,000 residents was 0.75 in 2019. The absence of arson in other years suggests that fire-related property crimes are not a persistent issue in the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and home ownership percentages. As the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 73% in 2015 to 83% in 2022, total property crimes decreased. This could suggest that higher rates of home ownership contribute to community stability and reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further reduction in property crimes to an average of 2-3 incidents per year. This prediction is based on the consistent downward trend observed from 2015 to 2022 and assumes similar socioeconomic conditions persist.
In summary, Fairfax has demonstrated a significant improvement in property crime rates over the observed period. The most notable change has been the substantial decrease in larceny-theft, which has driven the overall reduction in property crimes. The city's increasing rate of home ownership appears to correlate with this positive trend. While occasional incidents still occur, the community has maintained very low rates of burglary, motor vehicle theft, and arson. These trends suggest a generally safe environment with effective community and law enforcement efforts in place to deter property crimes.
