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Emerald Isle's Property Crime Decline: A Coastal Community's Success Story
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Emerald Isle, located in North Carolina, is a coastal community known for its beautiful beaches and laid-back atmosphere. The town has experienced a notable decrease in property crime over the past decade, with total property crimes falling from 249 in 2010 to 82 in 2022, representing a 67.1% reduction. This significant decrease occurred alongside a population growth from 3,620 in 2010 to 3,870 in 2022, indicating an 6.9% increase in residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 142 burglaries reported, which decreased to 21 in 2022, marking an 85.2% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 39.2 in 2010 to 5.4 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary figures has fluctuated, peaking at 0.38% in 2018 before declining to 0.09% in 2022. This dramatic decrease suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing break-ins.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased, though less dramatically than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts fell from 104 in 2010 to 57 in 2022, a 45.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 28.7 in 2010 to 14.7 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft incidents remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.05% and 0.13% over the years. This trend indicates a consistent improvement in preventing petty theft and shoplifting within the community.
Motor vehicle theft has shown more volatility but ultimately decreased. From 3 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 9 in 2018 before dropping to 4 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents went from 0.83 in 2010 to 1.03 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft figures has varied, reaching a high of 0.11% in 2018 before decreasing to 0.03% in 2022. This fluctuation suggests that while overall numbers are low, the city has experienced periodic spikes in this type of crime.
Arson incidents in the city have been rare, with only a few cases reported over the years. The highest number was 2 incidents in 2013, representing 0.24% of state arson cases. Since 2017, there have been no reported arson cases, indicating effective fire prevention and investigation measures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As the median income increased from $65,398 in 2013 to $84,671 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 240 to 82. Similarly, there's a positive correlation between home ownership rates and crime reduction, with ownership increasing from 71% in 2013 to 84% in 2022 as crime rates fell.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trajectory, total property crimes could potentially decrease to around 50-60 incidents annually by 2029. Burglaries might stabilize at 15-20 cases per year, while larceny-theft could drop to approximately 40-45 incidents. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain low, possibly averaging 2-3 cases annually.
In summary, Emerald Isle has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime over the past decade, with significant decreases across all categories. The inverse relationship between rising incomes, increasing home ownership, and declining crime rates suggests a strengthening community fabric. These trends, combined with the town's growing population and improving economic indicators, paint a picture of a thriving coastal community that has effectively addressed property crime issues, potentially making it an increasingly attractive destination for residents and visitors alike.
