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Effingham's Property Crime Decline: A Decade of Change in an Illinois City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Effingham, located in Illinois, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, alongside modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 7.5%, from 360 to 333 incidents. During this same period, the city's population increased by approximately 1%, from 15,965 to 16,128 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a general decline over time. In 2010, there were 53 burglaries reported, which decreased to 40 by 2022, representing a 24.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 3.32 to 2.48 incidents per 1,000 residents. Interestingly, despite this local decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.24% in 2022, suggesting a potentially more significant decline in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw a slight decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 300 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 281 by 2022, a 6.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 18.79 to 17.42. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.18% to 0.27%, indicating that the local reduction was less pronounced than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 7 reported incidents, which increased to 12 by 2022, a 71.4% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.44 to 0.74. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.03% in 2010, peaking at 0.12% in 2014, and settling at 0.04% in 2022, suggesting that local trends didn't consistently align with state patterns.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but variable. In 2010, there were 3 reported arsons, which decreased to 2 in 2022, a 33.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased slightly from 0.19 to 0.12. The city's contribution to state arson cases has fluctuated significantly, from 0.29% in 2010 to 0.3% in 2022, with notable variations in between, including years with no reported arsons.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $52,399 in 2013 to $61,744 in 2022, overall property crime incidents decreased. The percentage of owner-occupied housing remained relatively stable, ranging from 67% to 72%, showing no strong correlation with crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize around 35-40 incidents annually, while larceny-theft may see a further slight decline to approximately 270-275 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain variable but averaging around 10-15 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with 1-3 incidents per year.
In summary, Effingham has seen a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The increase in median income correlates with this positive trend, suggesting potential economic factors influencing crime rates. However, the city's increasing share of state property crimes in some categories indicates that local improvements may be outpacing state-wide trends. Moving forward, continued focus on economic development and community-based crime prevention strategies could help maintain and potentially improve upon these positive trends in Effingham.
