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Alma, Missouri: A Small City with Remarkably Low Violent Crime Trends
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Alma, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 849 in 2022, this small city has experienced notable fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. Interestingly, the total number of violent crimes has remained remarkably low, with only one reported incident in 2010 and zero incidents in all other years from 2010 to 2022. This represents a 100% decrease in violent crime over the period. Meanwhile, the population has seen modest growth, increasing from 850 in 2010 to 849 in 2022, a slight decrease of 0.12%.
The murder rate in the city has consistently been zero from 2010 to 2022, with no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population fluctuations during this period. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has also been 0% throughout the observed years.
Similarly, the rape statistics for the city show no reported incidents from 2010 to 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people has consistently been 0, and the city's percentage of state rape crimes has remained at 0% throughout this period. This absence of reported rape cases is significant, especially considering the population changes and the national attention on sexual assault issues in recent years.
Robbery trends in the city mirror those of murder and rape, with no reported incidents from 2010 to 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained at 0, and the city's contribution to state robbery statistics has been consistently 0%. This trend suggests a very low risk of property crime involving threat or use of force in the city.
Aggravated assault is the only category of violent crime that has shown any activity in the city during the observed period. In 2010, there was one reported case of aggravated assault, which accounted for 0.01% of the state's aggravated assault incidents that year. This translates to a rate of 1.18 incidents per 1,000 people based on the 2010 population. However, from 2011 to 2022, there were no reported aggravated assault cases, bringing the rate back to 0 per 1,000 people and 0% of state incidents.
When examining potential correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, the data presents a unique situation. With only one violent crime incident reported over a 13-year period, traditional correlations with factors like population density, median rent, and race distribution are not statistically significant. The stability of near-zero violent crime rates across all categories persists regardless of changes in these other factors.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the extremely low violent crime rates. Based on the historical data, the most likely scenario is that the city will continue to experience zero or near-zero violent crime incidents across all categories. The single aggravated assault incident in 2010 appears to be an outlier rather than indicative of a pattern.
In conclusion, Alma stands out as a remarkably safe community with respect to violent crime. The consistent absence of reported violent crimes across most categories over more than a decade, despite population fluctuations, suggests a stable and secure environment for residents. This exceptionally low crime rate could be a significant factor in community well-being and potentially in attracting new residents or businesses to the area.
