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Zip Code 96021: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership Patterns in Rural California
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 96021, located in Rancho Tehama Reserve, California, presents an intriguing case study of housing market dynamics. This rural area, spanning 596.45 square miles, has experienced fluctuations in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade. The overall trend shows a slight decrease in homeownership, while average home prices have generally increased, and average rent prices have shown some volatility.
The homeownership rate in zip code 96021 has seen a gradual decline from 69% in 2017 to 62% in 2022. This trend coincides with a significant increase in average home prices, which rose from $179,174 in 2017 to $307,002 in 2022, representing a 71.3% increase over five years. This inverse relationship suggests that rising home prices may have made homeownership less accessible for some residents.
Federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in the area. The period from 2013 to 2016 saw relatively stable homeownership rates around 66%, coinciding with historically low interest rates below 0.5%. As interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.83% in 2018, homeownership rates initially increased to 69% in 2017 but then started to decline. This trend suggests that while low interest rates initially supported homeownership, the subsequent rise in rates, combined with increasing home prices, may have deterred some potential buyers.
The renter population in zip code 96021 has grown from 31% in 2017 to 38% in 2022. Interestingly, average rent prices have shown some fluctuation during this period. In 2017, the average rent was $963, which decreased to $949 in 2018 before rising to $990 in 2019. The most recent data shows average rent at $932 in 2022, lower than the 2017 figure despite the increase in renter population. This trend could indicate a complex interplay of factors, including local economic conditions and housing supply.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in zip code 96021 reached $288,650 in 2023 and slightly decreased to $286,411 in 2024. This represents a 6% decrease from the 2022 peak of $307,002, possibly indicating a cooling in the local housing market. Concurrently, federal interest rates have risen significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which may be contributing to the softening of home prices.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in zip code 96021 may experience moderate growth, potentially reaching around $320,000 by 2029. This projection factors in the recent cooling trend and the current high interest rate environment. For average rent prices, we expect a gradual increase, potentially reaching approximately $1,050 by 2029, assuming steady population growth and continued demand for rental properties.
In summary, zip code 96021 has experienced a shift towards renting, with homeownership rates declining as average home prices have increased substantially. The recent cooling in home prices, coupled with rising interest rates, suggests a potential stabilization in the housing market. The rental market has shown resilience, with renter population increasing despite fluctuations in average rent prices. These trends highlight the dynamic nature of the local housing market and the complex interplay between homeownership, home prices, and economic factors.
