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Zip Code 33594: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership in Valrico, Florida
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 33594, located in Valrico, Florida, has experienced significant demographic and housing market changes over the past decade. This area has seen fluctuations in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market dynamics.
The homeownership rate in zip code 33594 has shown a gradual decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, the area boasted an 81% homeownership rate, which decreased to 77% by 2022. This trend correlates with the substantial increase in average home prices during the same period. In 2013, the average home price was $143,336, which more than doubled to $368,713 by 2022. This significant price appreciation may have made homeownership less attainable for some residents, contributing to the decline in ownership rates.
Federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in the area. From 2013 to 2016, interest rates remained below 0.5%, coinciding with a period of relatively stable homeownership rates around 78-79%. As interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.83% in 2018 and 2.16% in 2019, we observed a slight decrease in homeownership rates to 78% in these years. The low interest rate environment in 2020 and 2021 (0.38% and 0.08% respectively) didn't lead to an increase in homeownership, possibly due to the rapid rise in home prices during this period.
The renter population in zip code 33594 has grown from 19% in 2013 to 23% in 2022, mirroring the decline in homeownership. This shift coincides with an increase in average rent prices, rising from $1,272 in 2013 to $1,387 in 2022. The population growth from 30,142 in 2013 to 33,924 in 2022 may have contributed to the increased demand for rental properties, supporting the upward trend in rent prices despite the growing supply of rental units.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in zip code 33594 continued to rise, reaching $376,613 in 2023 and $384,215 in 2024. This represents a 2.1% increase from 2023 to 2024, indicating a slower rate of appreciation compared to previous years. Concurrently, federal interest rates have increased significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which may impact future homebuying activity in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in zip code 33594 will continue to appreciate, albeit at a more moderate pace. By 2029, average home prices could reach approximately $450,000 to $475,000, assuming a steady annual growth rate of 3-4%. Average rent prices are expected to follow a similar trajectory, potentially reaching $1,600 to $1,700 per month by 2029, reflecting an annual increase of 2-3%.
In summary, zip code 33594 has experienced a gradual shift towards a higher proportion of renters, driven by rapidly appreciating home prices and fluctuating interest rates. The area has seen substantial growth in both property values and rental costs, reflecting strong demand and demographic changes. As the market continues to evolve, the interplay between home prices, rent costs, and interest rates will likely remain key factors in shaping the area's housing landscape.
