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Zip Code 16507: Rising Home Values and Ownership Trends in Erie's Dynamic Urban Landscape
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 16507, located in Erie, Pennsylvania, presents an intriguing landscape of housing dynamics. This urban area has experienced significant shifts in homeownership rates and property values over the past decade. The ownership percentage has shown modest fluctuations, while average home prices and average rent prices have demonstrated more pronounced changes.
The homeownership rate in zip code 16507 has remained relatively stable, with slight variations over the years. In 2013, the ownership rate stood at 32%, dropping to 30% in 2014 and maintaining that level through 2016. There was a slight increase to 32% in 2017, followed by minor fluctuations, before reaching 36% in 2022. Interestingly, these changes in homeownership rates coincided with significant shifts in average home prices. The average home price in 2013 was $50,756, and it experienced a decline to $47,527 in 2014. However, from 2015 onwards, there was a gradual increase, with the average home price reaching $66,311 in 2022. This represents a 31% increase in average home prices from 2013 to 2022, despite relatively stable homeownership rates.
Federal interest rates have played a role in shaping homeownership trends in zip code 16507. The period from 2013 to 2016 saw historically low interest rates, ranging from 0.09% to 0.40%. During this time, homeownership rates remained steady at around 30-32%. As interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 (1.00%) to 2019 (2.16%), there was a slight increase in homeownership to 32% by 2019. Interestingly, the substantial drop in interest rates to 0.08% in 2021 didn't immediately translate to higher homeownership rates, but by 2022, with interest rates at 1.68%, homeownership reached its peak of 36% for the observed period.
The renter population in zip code 16507 has shown an inverse relationship to homeownership rates, naturally. The percentage of renters peaked at 70% from 2014 to 2016, coinciding with the lowest homeownership rates. As for average rent prices, there has been a steady increase over the years. In 2013, the average rent was $595, which rose to $621 by 2016, representing a 4.4% increase. The upward trend continued, with average rent reaching $893 in 2022, marking a substantial 50% increase from 2013. This rise in average rent prices occurred despite fluctuations in the area's population, which decreased from 10,191 in 2013 to 9,048 in 2022.
Looking at the most recent data, average home prices in zip code 16507 continued their upward trajectory, reaching $75,263 in 2023 and further increasing to $84,243 in 2024. This represents a significant 27% increase in just two years from 2022 to 2024. Simultaneously, federal interest rates have risen sharply, standing at 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, the highest levels seen in over a decade.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in zip code 16507 will continue to rise, potentially reaching around $110,000 by 2029. This projection is based on the consistent upward trend observed over the past decade and the recent acceleration in price growth. For average rent prices, the forecast suggests a continued increase, potentially reaching approximately $1,200 per month by 2029, assuming the current rate of growth persists.
In summary, zip code 16507 has experienced relatively stable homeownership rates with a recent uptick, alongside significant increases in both average home prices and average rent prices. The area has shown resilience in its housing market, with property values appreciating despite population fluctuations. The recent sharp rise in both home prices and interest rates presents a new dynamic that will likely shape the housing landscape in this Erie neighborhood in the coming years.
