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Zip Code 12916: Average Home Values and Ownership in Brushton, NY - A Decade of Change
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 12916, encompassing Brushton in New York, presents an intriguing case study of housing market dynamics in a rural setting. This area has experienced significant fluctuations in homeownership rates and housing prices over the past decade, reflecting broader economic trends and local market conditions.
The homeownership rate in zip code 12916 has shown a notable decline from 2017 to 2022. In 2017, 80% of residents were homeowners, but this figure dropped to 66% by 2022. This 14 percentage point decrease coincided with a substantial increase in average home prices. The average home price rose from $87,521 in 2017 to $131,650 in 2022, representing a 50.4% increase over five years. This inverse relationship suggests that rising home prices may have made homeownership less attainable for some residents.
Federal interest rates have played a significant role in shaping homeownership trends in the area. The period from 2010 to 2016 saw historically low interest rates, ranging from 0.09% to 0.40%. During this time, homeownership rates in zip code 12916 remained relatively stable, hovering around 75-79%. However, as interest rates began to rise more significantly from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, we observed a corresponding decline in homeownership rates. This trend aligns with the general principle that higher interest rates can make mortgages less affordable, potentially discouraging homeownership.
The rental market in zip code 12916 has shown interesting trends as well. As homeownership rates declined, the percentage of renters increased from 20% in 2017 to 34% in 2022. Despite this increased demand for rentals, average rent prices have fluctuated. The average rent peaked at $859 in 2017 but decreased to $600 by 2022. This counterintuitive trend might be explained by changes in the local economy or shifts in the types of rental properties available.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in zip code 12916 reached $136,443 in 2023, showing continued growth. However, in 2024, there was a slight decrease to $135,642, potentially indicating a stabilization of the market. Interestingly, federal interest rates increased significantly to 5.02% in 2023 and further to 5.33% in 2024, which may impact future homeownership trends in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in zip code 12916 will continue to rise, albeit at a more moderate pace. The recent plateau in prices suggests a potential annual growth rate of 2-3% over the next five years, which could bring the average home price to approximately $150,000 by 2029. For rent prices, the model predicts a gradual increase, potentially reaching an average of $675-$700 per month by 2029, assuming economic conditions remain stable.
In summary, zip code 12916 has experienced a significant shift from homeownership to renting over the past decade, driven by rising home prices and fluctuating interest rates. The interplay between these factors has reshaped the local housing market, with homeownership becoming less prevalent as home values increased. Moving forward, the area is likely to see continued but more moderate growth in both home prices and rents, potentially leading to a new equilibrium in the local housing market.
