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Zip Code 12139: Rising Home Values and Resilient Ownership in Speculator, NY
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 12139, located in Speculator, New York, presents an intriguing case study of homeownership and housing market dynamics in a small rural community. This area has experienced significant fluctuations in population and homeownership rates over the past decade, with a generally high percentage of owner-occupied housing units and steadily increasing average home prices.
The ownership percentage in zip code 12139 has remained consistently high, ranging from 83% to 97% between 2013 and 2022. During this period, average home prices have shown a strong upward trend. In 2010, the average home price was $213,985, which increased to $390,512 by 2022, representing an impressive 82.5% growth over 12 years. This substantial rise in home values occurred despite the area's relatively small and fluctuating population, which ranged from 65 to 139 residents during this period.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in this zip code appears to follow the general trend of lower interest rates encouraging homeownership. For instance, in 2013, when the federal interest rate was at a low 0.11%, the homeownership rate was 97%. As interest rates gradually increased in subsequent years, there was a slight decrease in homeownership, with the rate dropping to 86% in 2016 when the federal interest rate rose to 0.4%. However, the homeownership rate rebounded to 92% by 2022, even as interest rates climbed to 1.68%, suggesting that other local factors may also influence homeownership in this area.
Renter percentages in zip code 12139 have generally remained low, fluctuating between 2% and 14% from 2013 to 2022. The highest renter percentage was observed in 2016 at 14%, coinciding with a period of relatively low interest rates. The low renter percentages suggest that the rental market in this area is quite limited, which is typical for rural communities with high homeownership rates.
Looking at the most recent data, the average home price in zip code 12139 reached $398,992 in 2023, showing continued growth from the previous year. Interestingly, in 2024, there was a slight decrease to $398,111, marking the first decline in average home prices in over a decade. This coincides with a significant increase in federal interest rates, which rose to 5.02% in 2023 and further to 5.33% in 2024. These higher interest rates may be contributing to the stabilization of home prices in the area.
Applying predictive models to forecast 5-year trends, we anticipate that average home prices in zip code 12139 may experience moderate growth or stabilization. The recent plateau in prices, coupled with high interest rates, suggests that the rapid price increases observed in previous years may slow down. However, the limited housing supply in this small community could continue to support home values. As for rent prices, the consistently low renter percentages indicate that the rental market may remain relatively small and potentially stable over the next five years.
In summary, zip code 12139 demonstrates a strong preference for homeownership, with average home prices showing significant appreciation over the past decade. The area's small population and limited housing stock contribute to a unique market dynamic where homeownership rates remain high despite fluctuations in interest rates. The recent stabilization of home prices in 2023-2024, coinciding with rising interest rates, may signal a new phase in the local housing market, potentially leading to more moderate price growth in the coming years.
